人民币汇率波动对河南省外贸影响研究
发布时间：2019-03-18 14:01
【摘要】：当今世界的开放程度日趋加大,各国之间的经贸外来日趋频繁,对外贸易在国民经济中的地位与日俱增。汇率作为对外贸易交往的价格标尺,其变动对一个国家或地区的外贸影响是巨大的。改革开放以来,河南省对外贸易取得了长足的发展。当前国家正在大力推进“一带一路”建设,地处中原腹地的河南有着得天独厚的战略地位,同时河南自贸区的建设也已经正式获得国务院批复,将在2017年正式挂牌成立。在这个大背景下,河南省对外贸易正面临着前所未有的发展机遇,未来也必将取得跳跃式发展。汇率改革以后,中国实行了浮动汇率管理制度,人民币汇率面临着巨大的升值压力,其波动性也与日俱增。根据国际清算银行的测算,从2005年到2015年的十年间,人民币实际有效汇率已上涨近50%。随着中国逐步开放资本账户以及人民币正式作为第五种货币加入SDR货币篮子,人民币汇率对经济尤其是对外贸易的影响程度将更加显著。因此,深入研究人民币汇率波动对河南省对外贸易的影响具有很强的现实意义。文采用理论加实证的分析手段,首先对汇率对贸易影响的理论进行阐述,然后构建了人民币实际有效汇率与河南省进出口贸易、人民币实际有效汇率与河南省进出口加工贸易之间的计量模型,进行实证分析。在此基础上,结合人民币汇在未来的波动预期,为河南省的外贸如何在新时期取得更好发展提供政策建议。
[Abstract]:The opening degree of the world is increasing day by day, the foreign trade between countries is becoming more and more frequent, and the position of foreign trade in the national economy is increasing day by day. As the price gauge of foreign trade, the change of exchange rate has great influence on the foreign trade of a country or region. Since the reform and opening to the outside world, Henan Province has made great progress in foreign trade. At present, the country is vigorously promoting the "Belt and Road" construction, located in the hinterland of the Central Plains, Henan Province has a unique strategic position, at the same time, the construction of Henan Free Trade area has been officially approved by the State Council, will be officially listed in 2017. Under this background, Henan's foreign trade is facing unprecedented opportunities for development, and it is bound to achieve leap-forward development in the future. After the exchange rate reform, China has implemented the floating exchange rate management system, the RMB exchange rate is facing huge appreciation pressure, its volatility is also increasing day by day. The real effective exchange rate of the renminbi has risen nearly 50 percent between 2005 and 2015, according to calculations by the Bank for International Settlements. With the gradual opening of China's capital account and the official entry of the RMB into the SDR basket as the fifth currency, the impact of RMB exchange rate on the economy, especially on foreign trade, will be more significant. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to deeply study the influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on Henan's foreign trade. By means of theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper firstly expounds the influence of exchange rate on trade, and then constructs the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the import and export trade of Henan Province. The econometric model between the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the import and export processing trade of Henan Province is analyzed. On this basis, combined with the RMB exchange in the future volatility expectations, for the foreign trade in Henan Province to achieve better development in the new period to provide policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：河南财经政法大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.8
本文编号：2442931
[Abstract]:The opening degree of the world is increasing day by day, the foreign trade between countries is becoming more and more frequent, and the position of foreign trade in the national economy is increasing day by day. As the price gauge of foreign trade, the change of exchange rate has great influence on the foreign trade of a country or region. Since the reform and opening to the outside world, Henan Province has made great progress in foreign trade. At present, the country is vigorously promoting the "Belt and Road" construction, located in the hinterland of the Central Plains, Henan Province has a unique strategic position, at the same time, the construction of Henan Free Trade area has been officially approved by the State Council, will be officially listed in 2017. Under this background, Henan's foreign trade is facing unprecedented opportunities for development, and it is bound to achieve leap-forward development in the future. After the exchange rate reform, China has implemented the floating exchange rate management system, the RMB exchange rate is facing huge appreciation pressure, its volatility is also increasing day by day. The real effective exchange rate of the renminbi has risen nearly 50 percent between 2005 and 2015, according to calculations by the Bank for International Settlements. With the gradual opening of China's capital account and the official entry of the RMB into the SDR basket as the fifth currency, the impact of RMB exchange rate on the economy, especially on foreign trade, will be more significant. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to deeply study the influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on Henan's foreign trade. By means of theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper firstly expounds the influence of exchange rate on trade, and then constructs the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the import and export trade of Henan Province. The econometric model between the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the import and export processing trade of Henan Province is analyzed. On this basis, combined with the RMB exchange in the future volatility expectations, for the foreign trade in Henan Province to achieve better development in the new period to provide policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：河南财经政法大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.8
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