比特币价格泡沫:证据、原因与启示

发布时间：2019-03-18 14:00

【摘要】：文章利用比特币作为一种具有共同内在价值的世界性虚拟货币,且在多个国家进行同步交易等独特性质,结合正态分布检验和sup ADF检验等多种方法,从价格背离性和爆炸性的角度对比特币价格泡沫进行检验,为比特币存在价格泡沫提供了实证证据。文章发现,比特币是一种完美的金融投机对象,投机因素是比特币价格泡沫产生的主要原因,而监管缺失则是导致比特币价格泡沫不断膨胀的重要原因。另外,比特币的优点被过度夸大而产生的价值高估,以及可能存在的市场操控,也是比特币价格泡沫得以长期存在的重要因素。政策当局应加强对互联网金融产品的关注,及时制定和完善相关政策,合理引导投资者进行理性投资,促进交易机制的完善并防止市场操控,维护互联网金融的健康稳定发展。
[Abstract]:This paper makes use of the unique properties of Bitcoin as a world virtual currency with common intrinsic value and synchronous transactions in many countries, combining with the normal distribution test and sup ADF test, and other methods, such as normal distribution test, sup ADF test and so on. To test the price bubble of Bitcoin from the perspective of price deviation and explosion provides empirical evidence for the existence of price bubble in bitcoin. It is found that Bitcoin is a perfect object of financial speculation, and speculative factors are the main cause of bitcoin price bubble, and the lack of regulation is the main cause of bitcoin price bubble. In addition, the overvaluation of the advantages of Bitcoin, as well as the possible market manipulation, are important factors in the long-term existence of a bitcoin price bubble. The policy authorities should pay more attention to Internet financial products, formulate and perfect relevant policies in time, reasonably guide investors to make rational investment, promote the perfection of trading mechanism and prevent market manipulation, so as to maintain the healthy and stable development of Internet finance.
【作者单位】：中南财经政法大学会计学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(14YJC790023) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(31541511104)
【分类号】：F821

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