系统性金融风险:测度与时空格局演化分析

发布时间：2019-04-02 15:44

【摘要】：基于Markov链模型和ESDA探索性空间数据分析技术,测度2003-2014年中国31个省域系统性金融风险水平,并深入解析中国系统性金融风险的时空格局演化特征。研究表明:时空分异特征方面,中国各省域系统性金融风险水平总体上呈先上升后下降的趋势,并且东西部地区风险较高,中部地区风险较低;风险分布演进方面,高水平、中低水平、低水平3个风险类型的省域存在明显的俱乐部趋同现象,系统性金融风险长期分布格局趋于均衡,略向低风险水平倾斜;时空格局演化方面,整体上中国系统性金融风险水平在不同省域间具有显著的溢出效应,局部格局上"高-高"溢出效应区集中在东部沿海和西部边境省域。
[Abstract]:Based on the Markov chain model and ESDA exploratory spatial data analysis technology, this paper measures the level of systemic financial risk in 31 provinces of China from 2003 to 2014, and deeply analyzes the evolution characteristics of the temporal and spatial pattern of systemic financial risk in China. The results show that: in the aspect of spatial-temporal differentiation, the level of systemic financial risk in all provinces of China tends to rise first and then decrease, and the risk is higher in the east and west, and lower in the central region; In the aspect of risk distribution evolution, there are obvious club convergence phenomena in three risk types: high level, low level and low level, and the long-term distribution pattern of systemic financial risk tends to be balanced, slightly inclined to low risk level; On the whole, the level of systemic financial risk in China has significant spillover effects among different provinces, and the "high-high" spillover effect areas in the local pattern are concentrated in the eastern coastal and western border provinces.
【作者单位】：西安交通大学经济与金融学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目《面向金融安全的房地产市场风险识别及预警研究》(71373201);国家自然科学基金项目《房地产冲击系统性风险的机理、影响、测度及防范研究》(71673214) 教育部哲学社会科学研究后期资助重大项目《人民币国际化进程中的金融风险研究》(16JHQ006)
【分类号】：F832

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