新常态下中国最优货币调控范式选择——基于财政货币政策互动视角

发布时间：2019-06-20 01:22

【摘要】：本文将三种不同情形的货币规则引入DSGE模型,基于1996—2015年间季度数据对我国货币规则属性进行识别,并运用数值模拟以系统探究央行与财政部门不同互动策略对货币政策有效性的影响。贝叶斯估计表明,我国财政政策具有明显的逆周期相机操作特征;央行独立性较低,当前货币调控主要遵循"被动配合型"操作范式。数值模拟发现,"独立型"货币规则下财政冲击造成的经济偏离最小,经济回归稳态的速度最快,社会福利损失也最小;央行现阶段所采用的"被动配合型"规则消化经济冲击的能力最差,经济稳态收敛速度较慢,并最易引致福利损失。为此,本文认为未来我国货币调控应由"被动配合型"向"独立型"操作范式转型,以有效引领新常态经济发展。
[Abstract]:In this paper, three different monetary rules are introduced into DSGE model, and the attributes of monetary rules in China are identified based on the quarterly data from 1996 to 2015, and the effects of different interaction strategies between central banks and financial departments on the effectiveness of monetary policy are systematically explored by numerical simulation. Bayesian estimation shows that China's fiscal policy has obvious counter-cyclical camera operation characteristics, the independence of the central bank is low, and the current monetary regulation mainly follows the "passive matching" operation paradigm. The numerical simulation shows that the economic deviation caused by the financial shock under the "independent" monetary rule is the smallest, the speed of economic return to steady state is the fastest, and the social welfare loss is also the smallest. The "passive matching" rule adopted by the central bank at this stage has the worst ability to digest economic shocks, and the convergence speed of economic steady state is slow, and it is most likely to lead to welfare losses. Therefore, this paper holds that monetary regulation and control in China should be transformed from "passive matching" to "independent" operation paradigm in order to effectively lead the development of the new normal economy.
【作者单位】：南京大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“基于物价调控的我国最优财政货币政策体制研究”(12&ZD064) 国家社会科学基金项目“依托战略性新兴产业加快长三角转变经济发展方式问题研究”(12BJL080);国家社会科学基金项目“新型城镇化进程中财政教育支出绩效评估研究”(15XGL005) 江苏省社科应用研究精品工程项目“南京市城市金融竞争力研究”(16SYC-102)的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：F822.0

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