经济周期、客户集中度与资本结构动态调整

发布时间：2019-06-20 05:01

【摘要】：近年来,随着我国经济结构调整,我国上市公司对市场进行了适应性调整。随着对资本结构研究从不同角度、不同维度的逐步深入和全面丰富,对资本结构理论的应用范畴也越来越广泛。权衡理论认为,上市公司普遍存在着目标资本结构,但基于对调整风险、成本等因素的考量,公司做出向目标资本结构调整的决策往往都只是局部调整,这种决策后果就导致资本结构较高频率处于偏离其目标值的波动状态。公司资本结构朝目标值动态调整的这一过程实际上是各种影响成分综合作用的结果,包括公司自身层面特质因素,也包括行业特征因素和宏观经济政策等因素。随着中国经济脱虚向实,上市公司作为承载实体经济发展的重要载体也不断地在推动市场的发展。我国有不同于发达国家的市场特征,因此对我国企业资本结构调整的研究,有助于为企业结构优化提供参考,为市场发展提供依据。本文采用局部动态调整模型,以2005-2015年我国A股市场1792家制造业细分领域数据为样本,结合客户集中度这个外部利益相关者微观特质作为代理变量,考察其对上市公司资本结构调整的偏离度和调整速度的作用效果。本文首先分析、确定目标资本结构的存在性,对最优资本结构进行拟合,然后结合资本结影响因素进行剖析,在此基础上实证检验、测算资本结构调整的偏离度和调整速度,解释公司普遍存在的资本结构调整行为并分析效果。通过构建的测算模型,考察外部利益相关者客户集中度这个特殊影响因素对调整偏离度和调整速度的具体影响,并引入景气指数Hg等指标探求经济周期这个宏观因素对资本结构的作用效果。最后,本文根据客户集中度差异化,深度解析各个经济周期阶段下资本结构调整的偏离度和调整速度。实证结果表明:(1)上市公司的客户集中度越高,其资本结构偏离度越小,调整速度越快;(2)经济越景气,企业资本结构偏离度越低,资本结构调整速度越快;(3)经济越景气、客户集中度越高,资本结构调整速度越快。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the adjustment of China's economic structure, listed companies in China have made adaptive adjustments to the market. With the study of capital structure from different angles and the gradual deepening and enrichment of different dimensions, the application category of capital structure theory is becoming more and more extensive. According to the tradeoff theory, there is a general target capital structure in listed companies, but based on the consideration of adjustment risk, cost and other factors, the decision to adjust the target capital structure is often only local adjustment, which leads to the high frequency of capital structure in a fluctuating state that deviates from its target value. The process of dynamic adjustment of corporate capital structure to the target value is actually the result of the comprehensive effect of various influencing components, including the specific factors at the level of the company itself, as well as the factors such as industry characteristics and macroeconomic policies. With the development of Chinese economy, listed companies, as an important carrier to carry the development of real economy, are constantly promoting the development of the market. China has different market characteristics from developed countries, so the study of the adjustment of enterprise capital structure in China is helpful to provide reference for the optimization of enterprise structure and the basis for market development. In this paper, the local dynamic adjustment model is used to investigate the effect of local dynamic adjustment model on the deviation degree and adjustment speed of capital structure adjustment of listed companies, taking the data of 1792 manufacturing segments in China's A-share market from 2005 to 2015 as samples and combining the micro-characteristics of external stakeholders, such as customer concentration, as agency variables. This paper first analyzes and determines the existence of the target capital structure, fits the optimal capital structure, and then analyzes the influencing factors of the capital structure. On this basis, it calculates the deviation degree and adjustment speed of the capital structure adjustment, explains the common capital structure adjustment behavior of the company and analyzes the effect. Through the calculation model, this paper investigates the specific influence of the customer concentration of external stakeholders on the adjustment deviation and adjustment speed, and introduces the weather index Hg to explore the effect of the macro factor of economic cycle on the capital structure. Finally, according to the difference of customer concentration, this paper deeply analyzes the deviation degree and adjustment speed of capital structure adjustment in each economic cycle. The empirical results show that: (1) the higher the customer concentration of listed companies is, the smaller the deviation degree of capital structure is, the faster the adjustment speed is; (2) the more prosperous the economy is, the lower the deviation degree of capital structure is, the faster the adjustment speed of capital structure is; (3) the more prosperous the economy is, the higher the customer concentration is, the faster the adjustment speed of capital structure is.
【学位授予单位】：华中农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F406.7;F425;F832.51

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