货币政策房价传导机制的区域差异研究

发布时间：2019-06-27 16:01

【摘要】：随着我国房地产市场的快速甚至过度的发展,房地产价格对人民生产生活的影响越来越大,为了利用货币政策有效的调控房地产价格,引导实体经济绿色健康地发展,本文将房价引入到货币政策传导机制中进行分析。另外,我国各地区经济发展水平不同,各地区金融结构存在一定差异,货币政策通过房价在各地区传导的效果是否也具有区域性差异,是一个具有理论与现实意义的问题。本文首先对货币政策房价传导机制进行理论分析,从货币渠道和信贷渠道两个方面了解货币政策传导机制原理,再将货币政策房价传导机制分为两个阶段进行理论分析:第一个阶段是货币政策对房价的传导;第二阶段是房价对实体经济的传导。根据理论基础,借助图表对传导机制中相关指标的现状和趋势进行直观的观察。然后,将全国分为东部、中部、西部三个地区,利用我国2003-2015年31个省市的季度数据,分地区建立面板向量自回归模型(PVAR),通过矩估计、脉冲响应函数图研究不同区域货币政策房价传导机制的差异,并通过了模型的稳定性判别,证明估计的有效性。结果表明货币政策房价传导机制在各地区是通畅的,但是各地区的传导过程不同:货币供应量在东部地区和中部地区对房价的影响更显著;利率在东部和西部地区对房价影响更为显著,并且都为负向影响;三个地区房价对投资的影响都较为显著;中部和西部地区的房价变动对消费的抑制效应更为显著,而东部地区房价只有通过利率渠道传导时,才会对消费产生较明显的影响。最后,根据文章的实证结果分析,从金融机构体制的完善、制定区域化购房的限制政策、引导人口流动等方面提出了相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the rapid and even over-development of the real estate market in our country, the influence of the real estate price on the people's production life is becoming more and more important. In order to effectively adjust the real estate price by using the monetary policy, the real estate price is led to the green and healthy development of the real estate. In this paper, the house price is introduced into the monetary policy transmission mechanism for analysis. In addition, the regional economic development level of our country is different, there is a certain difference in the financial structure of each region, and whether the monetary policy has regional difference through the effect of house price conduction in various regions is a problem with both theoretical and practical significance. In this paper, the mechanism of monetary policy house price is analyzed theoretically, and the principle of monetary policy transmission mechanism is known from two aspects of money channel and credit channel, and the mechanism of price conduction of monetary policy is divided into two stages for theoretical analysis. The first stage is the conduction of the monetary policy to the house price; the second stage is the conduction of the house price to the real economy. According to the theoretical basis, the present situation and the trend of the related indexes in the conduction mechanism are visually observed with the help of the graph. Then, the whole country is divided into three parts of the east, the middle part and the west, and the self-regression model (PVAR) of the panel vector is set up in the sub-region by using the quarterly data of the 31 provinces and cities in 2003-2015, and the difference of the price conduction mechanism of the monetary policy in different regions is studied by the moment estimation and the impulse response function diagram. And the validity of the estimation is proved by the stability judgment of the model. The results show that the monetary policy house price conduction mechanism is smooth in all regions, but the conduction process of each region is different: the effect of the money supply in the east and the central region on the house price is more significant; the effect of interest rate on the house price in the eastern and western regions is more significant, and the effect of the negative effect is negative; The effect of house prices on investment in the three areas is significant; the change of house prices in the central and western regions is more significant to the effect of consumption, and only when the price of the east region is conducted through the channel of interest rate, it will have a more obvious effect on consumption. Finally, based on the analysis of the empirical results of the article, relevant policy suggestions are put forward from the aspects of the improvement of the financial institution system, the development of the restriction policy of the regional house purchase, the introduction of the population flow and so on.
【学位授予单位】：湖南科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F822.0;F299.23

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