中国杠杆率悖论——兼论货币政策“稳增长”和“降杠杆”真的两难吗

发布时间：2019-08-06 11:02

【摘要】：近年来,为了防控金融风险,"降杠杆"的呼声此起彼伏。在经济增速放缓的背景下,货币政策当局一度陷入"稳增长"与"降杠杆"的两难境地,并总体上实施了"名松实紧"的货币政策。然而,随着货币增长率放缓,中国经济杠杆率却越降越高,堪称"杠杆率悖论"。本文试图利用修正的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型来分析中国货币供应量和杠杆率之间的关系,厘清中国杠杆率悖论背后的作用机制。结果显示,降低货币供应量会带来投资和消费增长的下滑,进而带来产出更大幅度下降,最后反而会提高经济杠杆率。具体地,在货币增速受到负向冲击下,货币供应量每下降0.08个百分点,将带动投资和产出分别下降0.38个和0.18个百分点,使得杠杆率上升0.09个百分点。在存在金融加速器效应的情况下,这一影响机制还会得到进一步加强,货币供应量比基准每下降0.08个百分点,将带动投资和产出分别下降0.59个和0.25个百分点,使得杠杆率上升0.14个百分点。因此,货币政策"稳增长"和"降杠杆"并非两难选择,而是具有一致性,简单采用紧缩性货币政策来降杠杆的做法很可能适得其反。
[Abstract]:In recent years, in order to prevent and control financial risks, "leverage" calls one after another. Against the background of slowing economic growth, monetary policy authorities once fell into the dilemma of "stable growth" and "deleveraging", and generally implemented a "loose and tight" monetary policy. However, as the monetary growth rate slows, the leverage ratio of the Chinese economy is falling higher and higher, which is called the "leverage ratio paradox". This paper attempts to use the modified dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to analyze the relationship between money supply and leverage ratio in China and to clarify the mechanism behind the paradox of leverage ratio in China. The results show that a reduction in the money supply will lead to a decline in investment and consumption growth, which in turn will lead to a greater decline in output and, in the end, will increase the leverage ratio of the economy. Specifically, under the negative impact of money growth, every 0.08 percentage point decline in the money supply will lead to a 0.38 percentage point drop in investment and 0.18 percentage points in output, resulting in a 0.09 percentage point increase in leverage. In the presence of the financial accelerator effect, this impact mechanism will be further strengthened, the money supply compared with the benchmark drop of 0.08 percentage points, will lead to investment and output by 0.59 and 0.25 percentage points, respectively, making the leverage ratio increase by 0.14 percentage points. Therefore, the "steady growth" and "deleveraging" of monetary policy are not dilemmas, but are consistent, and the simple use of tight monetary policy to reduce leverage is likely to be counterproductive.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院;北京大学国家发展研究院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目“从‘大缓和’到‘大衰退’的西方宏观经济学理论与政策的大反思”(14ZDB123) 马克思主义理论研究和建设工程重大项目“防范和化解经济金融风险”(2015MZD033) 北京市社会科学基金重点项目“开放视角下的中国货币政策框架的重构”(14JGA002)
【分类号】：F822.0

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