中国通货膨胀驱动因素、省际传递及货币政策有效性研究

发布时间：2018-01-26 08:00

本文关键词： 通货膨胀 HNKPC模型省际传递动态空间面板模型局部投影法　出处：《吉林大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：通货膨胀一直以来都是宏观经济领域的研究热点,同时也是关系国计民生的重要问题。已有的国内外文献大多从通货膨胀产生原因及其影响等角度来研究通货膨胀问题,还有一些文献对通货膨胀在国际间的传递进行研究,但鲜有文献从省际传递角度入手研究通货膨胀问题。此外,对货币政策有效性的研究大多是基于国家整体政治和经济形势进行分析,部分研究区域性货币政策的文献也是从不同地区地理位置和经济发展水平等角度入手,给出实施区域性货币政策的现实意义和具体措施,但尚未有文献从通货膨胀省际传递的角度来分析货币政策的有效性问题。本文通过研究国内外通货膨胀主要驱动因素,在新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线(New Keynesian Phillips Curve,简称NKPC)框架内构建研究中国通货膨胀成因的混合模型。在此基础上,为研究中国通货膨胀省际传递问题,本文在新凯恩斯混合菲利普斯曲线(Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve,简称HNKPC)模型中引入空间计量因素,即加入经济地理空间权重矩阵,利用动态面板空间自回归模型(Dynamic-panel Spatial Autoregressive Model)分析通货膨胀在时间和空间上的特征。不同于以往文献,本文创新性地使用局部投影法(Local Projection)来计算中国省份通货膨胀的脉冲响应函数,以研究通货膨胀省际传递的速度和持续期问题,同时又按照东部、中部、西部和东北四大经济区域对我国省份进行划分,研究不同地区通货膨胀的省际传递情况。研究结果发现,导致我国通货膨胀产生的因素是多重的,包括货币因素、需求因素、成本因素和外部输入性因素等多个方面。一个省份的通货膨胀在两年时间内会对周边省份的通货膨胀产生影响,两年以后影响逐渐消失,同时,不同地区通货膨胀对于货币供应量冲击的反应也有所差别,货币政策在治理通货膨胀时存在时滞效应。之后本文又分析了通货膨胀和货币政策有效性的关系,发现不同地区通货膨胀水平不仅受本地区因素影响,而且受周边地区通货膨胀水平的影响,这些因素导致不同地区的通货膨胀水平存在差异,同时,相邻地区通货膨胀会相互影响,因此,全国统一货币政策在不同地区实施效果不同,在治理通货膨胀时的效率也有差别。最后,本文提出了有关治理区域通货膨胀的货币政策建议,包括实行差异化货币政策,增强央行货币政策独立性和加强货币政策同其他经济政策的协调等三个方面。
[Abstract]:Inflation has always been a hot topic in the field of macroeconomic research. At the same time, it is also an important issue related to the national economy and the people's livelihood. Most of the domestic and foreign literature has studied the inflation problem from the perspective of the causes and effects of inflation. There are also some documents on the international transmission of inflation, but few from the perspective of inter-provincial transmission of inflation. In addition. Most of the studies on the effectiveness of monetary policy are based on the overall political and economic situation of the country, and part of the literature on regional monetary policy is also from the geographical location of different regions and the level of economic development and so on. The practical significance and concrete measures of implementing regional monetary policy are given. However, there is no literature to analyze the effectiveness of monetary policy from the angle of inter-provincial transmission of inflation. This paper studies the main driving factors of inflation at home and abroad. New Keynesian Phillips Curve in the New Keynesian Phillips curve. In order to study the interprovincial transmission of inflation in China, a mixed model is constructed to study the causes of inflation in China within the framework of NKPC. This paper presents a hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve based on the new Keynesian hybrid Phillips curve. The spatial measurement factor is introduced into the HNKPC model, that is, the economic geography spatial weight matrix is added. Using the dynamic panel space autoregressive model to make use of the Dynamic-panel Spatial Autoregressive Model). Analysis of the characteristics of inflation in time and space. Different from previous literature. In this paper, the local projection method is innovatively used to calculate the impulse response function of inflation in Chinese provinces. In order to study the speed and duration of inter-provincial transmission of inflation, at the same time according to the eastern, central, western and northeast of the four major economic regions of China's provinces are divided. This paper studies the inter-provincial transmission of inflation in different regions. The results show that the factors leading to inflation in China are multiple, including monetary factors and demand factors. Cost factors and external input factors, etc. Inflation in a province in two years will have an impact on the neighboring provinces inflation, two years later the impact gradually disappeared, at the same time. The response of inflation to the impact of money supply is also different in different regions. There is a delay effect in the control of inflation in monetary policy. Then this paper analyzes the relationship between inflation and the effectiveness of monetary policy. It is found that the inflation level in different regions is affected not only by local factors, but also by the level of inflation in the surrounding areas. These factors lead to differences in the level of inflation in different regions, and at the same time. Inflation in neighboring regions will affect each other, therefore, the national unified monetary policy in different regions of the implementation of different effects, in the control of inflation efficiency is also different. Finally. This paper puts forward some monetary policy suggestions on controlling regional inflation, including implementing differentiated monetary policy, strengthening the independence of central bank's monetary policy and strengthening the coordination of monetary policy with other economic policies.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F822.5;F822.0

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