上市公司重大并购重组收益额预测实证研究

发布时间：2018-02-13 09:53

本文关键词： 上市公司重大并购重组资产评估收益额预测马尔科夫模型　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：并购重组一直是资本市场炙手可热的经济交易形式,资产评估作为提供标的资产交易定价参考依据的独立第三方,其方法选择和参数确定在并购重组中受到的关注度日益提高。收益法作为并购重组价值评估中最常用的方法,其首要参数收益额的预测精准度对目标企业价值评估客观性和公允性而言至关重要。本文基于2011年28家沪深A股上市公司重大并购重组交易案例披露的评估数据,判断预测收益额和未来实际发生额的偏差程度,并根据现状分析存在的问题,提出具有可行性的收益额预测改进模型。首先,回顾了企业价值评估收益额相关理论并简要评述现行预测方法的局限性;其次针对上市公司在2011年发生的重大并购重组交易案例进行分析,一方面通过依次统计披露的并购重组类型、并购方所属行业、评估选择方法、收益额口径择取等信息,客观地反映市场评估现状;另一方面,分析重大并购重组后目标公司三年实际收益,探究其表现出的行业特征及时间特性;再次,运用实证分析手法,将收益法预测的未来三年收益额详细数据与交易完成后并购方披露的目标公司实际净利润数值进行比较,分析纵向各年和横向行业间的偏差趋势,并运用SFE、AFE、MAFE统计指标对偏差程度予以评价,由此得到我国并购市场绝大多数行业收益额预测偏差较大且随预测时段的拉长愈加严重的结论。针对我国目前评估行业收益法应用中收益额预测的现存问题,本文提出收益额预测新思路,构建改进的灰色马尔科夫模型,并通过实例证明其可行性,以期能对评估实务操作提供经验借鉴,减少收益额参数主观臆断性,降低评估结果误差,帮助企业管理层、外部投资者等相关利益群体做出最优的经营决策。
[Abstract]:Mergers and acquisitions has been the form of economic capital market transactions hot, asset assessment is provide the basis for the price of the transaction price reference of the independent third party, the methods and parameters determined by the merger and reorganization of the increasingly attention. The income method is the most commonly used method to assess the value of mergers and acquisitions group, the primary parameters of income prediction the amount of accuracy for the target enterprise value assessment objectivity and fairness is very important. This paper evaluates data disclosure of major mergers and acquisitions transactions in 2011 28 in Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares of listed companies based on the case, judge the revenue forecast and actual value of the deviation degree of the future, according to the present situation, analyze the existing problems, put forward the improvement of income model is feasible. The amount of prediction. Firstly, reviews the related theory of income and the limitations of the existing prediction methods are briefly reviewed the enterprise value assessment; For the listed companies in major mergers and acquisitions transactions occurred in 2011, followed by statistical analysis, on the one hand, the disclosure of the merger and reorganization merger type, industry, evaluation and selection method, income caliber choose to take information, objectively reflect the assessment of the market situation; on the other hand, analysis of major mergers and acquisitions of Target Corp after three years of practical return, explore the character of the industry and the characteristics of time; thirdly, using empirical analysis method, the income method to predict the next three years with earnings data and after the completion of the transaction acquirer disclosure of Target Corp actual net profit numerical comparison, trend analysis of longitudinal and transverse industry each year between the deviation and the use of SFE. AFE, MAFE statistical indicators to assess the extent of deviation, the vast majority of the industry mergers and acquisitions in China market revenue forecast and prediction of large deviation with long time The severity of the conclusion. In view of the current existing problems of industry revenue, income assessment using the method of prediction, this income forecast new ideas, constructing the improved grey Markov model, and proves its feasibility through the example, in order to evaluate the practice to provide reference and experience, reduce the amount of income subjective parameters. To reduce the error evaluation results, help enterprise management, external investors and other stakeholders to make optimal decisions.

【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F271;F275

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