四川省农业全要素生产率变动的影响因素空间计量研究

发布时间：2018-02-13 17:58

本文关键词： 农业全要素生产率空间效应经济收敛影响因素　出处：《四川农业大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：四川省作为我国西南地区经济发展的高地,在区域发展中地位重要。作为一个以农业经济发展为主的省份,尽管四川省历年农业增长速度较快,但依然不是农业强省。面临着农业新科技、新管理方式的应用导致的农业劳动力过剩；农业生产者的专业技能还不够高；农业发展的后备土地资源较缺乏；农户经营规模小不利于效率的提升等问题。而经济和社会发展的基础保障在于农业产出的高效推进,因此,只能依靠农业全要素生产率的提高而实现。有必要研究过去3个五年规划中四川省的农业全要素生产率发展状况,通过农业全要素生产率变动分析和模型研究,挖掘出主要的影响因素,为农业的改造升级建言献策。依据统计分析检验删除冗余的指标,筛选出衡量四川省农业产出的农林牧渔总产值以及五大投入变量,使用非参数的DEA-Malmquist指数法测度出四川省历年的农业全要素生产率。结果显示四川省农业产出增长的71.17%来自于农业全要素生产率的增长,农业全要素生产率每年平均增长3.9%。四川省的农业全要素生产率的增长完全依赖于农业科技进步的快速提升,贡献度达到了105.1%,但技术效率的负增长降低了技术进步的提升作用。通过对全省和五大经济区进行收敛分析,研究表明四川省农业发展总体上不均衡,内部差异明显。根据构建的空间计量模型实证分析了各因素对四川省农业全要素生产率的影响程度,结果表明：空间个体之间的地理效应对农业全要素生产率有很强的正向作用,得益于技术的外溢和技术效率的快速扩展,农业各项政策的制定和实施必须考虑进相邻地区的作用；经济发展水平对四川农业全要素生产率的影响程度还比较低,具体表现为农村消费水平还比较低,农业科技与管理意识比较淡薄,原因在于当前部分农村区域的社会保障体系还不够完善,畏惧消费的心理依然存在：农业机械动力的贡献度不够高,原因在于机械的研发与农业新技术的不匹配,农业机械的推广度偏低和机械的使用成本高;当前的农户经营规模严重阻碍了农业技术技术效率的提升,急需改革现有的农业土地经营体制,实现规模经营。四川省的农业发展需要进一步提升农业全要素生产率,最后根据结论提出了四条建议：建立健全农用机械使用体系,大力普及农业机械化操作；大力提升农村消费水平,增强农业生产者的科技意识和农业消费动力；发挥地区间的空间效应作用,促进技术进步与技术应用的快速扩展；改革农业土地流转机制,进行规模化经营和获得资金支持。
[Abstract]:Sichuan Province, as China's economic development in the southwest of the Highlands, in the regional development. As an important position in agricultural economic development in the provinces, although Sichuan Province agricultural growth faster, but still not the agricultural province. Facing the new agricultural technology, resulting in application of new management mode of agricultural surplus labor in agriculture; the producers of the professional skills is not high enough; reserve land resources for agricultural development is lack; small-scale farmers is not conducive to efficiency improvement. And the basic guarantee for economic and social development is the high efficiency of agricultural output in advance, therefore, can only rely on the agricultural total factor productivity and implementation. It is necessary to study the past 3 the five year plan in Sichuan Province Agricultural TFP development through agricultural TFP change analysis and model research, dig out the main influencing factors, For the upgrading of agricultural suggestions. Based on the statistical analysis of test delete redundant indicators, selected the total agricultural output value of Sichuan Province agricultural measure and the five input variables, using non parametric DEA-Malmquist index method to measure the annual agricultural TFP in Sichuan province. The results showed that the growth of Sichuan province's agricultural output from 71.17% agricultural TFP growth, rapid increase of agricultural total factor productivity of the average annual growth of 3.9%. in Sichuan Province Agricultural TFP growth depends entirely on the agricultural science and technology progress, contribution rate reached 105.1%, but the negative growth of technological efficiency reduced to enhance the role of technological progress. Through the analysis of the convergence and the five largest economy research shows that Sichuan province agriculture area, the overall development is not balanced, the internal difference. According to the empirical analysis of spatial econometric model construction The degree of influence of various factors on agricultural total factor productivity of Sichuan province. The results showed that the effect of geographical space between individuals has a positive effect on agricultural TFP, thanks to the rapid expansion of technology and technology spillover efficiency, establish agricultural policies and implementation must be considered into adjacent areas; influence the economic development level of Sichuan agricultural total factor productivity is still relatively low, the specific performance of the rural consumption level is still relatively low, the agricultural science and technology and the management consciousness is weak, the reason lies in the current rural area social security system is not perfect, the fear of consumption psychology still exist: the power of agricultural machinery's contribution is not high enough, because no, R & D and new technology of agricultural machinery, agricultural machinery popularization and low degree of mechanical use of high cost farmers; current regulation Die has seriously hindered the technical efficiency of agricultural technology promotion, urgent need to reform the existing agricultural land management system, to achieve the scale of operation in Sichuan province. The agricultural development needs to further enhance agricultural TFP, finally according to the conclusion put forward four suggestions: establish and perfect the system of agricultural machinery, promote agricultural mechanization operation; vigorously promote rural consumption the level of enhancement of agricultural producers of the consciousness of science and technology and agricultural consumption power; the role of space effect between regions, to promote the rapid expansion of technology progress and technology transfer mechanism; reform of agricultural land scale management and financial support.

【学位授予单位】：四川农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F224;F327

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