减速背景下促进中国经济持续发展的劳动力结构优化途径与对策研究

发布时间：2018-02-28 01:24

本文关键词： 经济增长劳动力质量劳动力数量　出处：《江西财经大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：伴随中国人口年龄结构变化而来的人口红利衰减、剩余劳动力在产业与区域间转移而致工资差距的缩小和劳动力成本的大幅上升、国际需求萎缩、贸易保护日趋明显等经济环境的变化,中国经济在经历30多年持续高速发展后似乎已迈入减速通道,增速从过去的近10%不断下降到2015年的6.9%。由结构性增速阶段向结构性减速阶段转变符合世界经济发展一般规律,也为当前中国经济的可持续增长提出了挑战和机遇。本文认为,尽管减速趋势已不可避免,但减速背景下中国经济实现中高速增长的潜能依旧巨大。本文意图从劳动力结构的角度出发,探究促进中国经济持续增长的劳动力结构优化途径和对策。首先,本文对世界主要经济体和中国经济的增长历程进行分析,以便对中国当前经济发展阶段进行基本判断。本文先对世界上主要经济体进行分析发现,无论是发达国家还是新兴经济体,经济增长都会经历一个从加速到减速的过程,这似乎是世界经济发展的一般事实。然后从中国经济的实际国情出发,分析中国1978-2014年人均GDP后发现,中国经济增长具有明显的周期性,但是通过移动平均趋势线,我们发现人均GDP出现一个明显的下降趋势。由此本文认为中国经济增长似乎已进入减速通道,中国经济发展阶段从高速向中高速过渡。其次,从劳动力结构的两个维度对中国经济增长分别进行统计分析和实证分析。本文将劳动力的数量细分为劳动力就业结构、劳动力城乡结构和劳动力年龄结构,以人力资本指代劳动力的质量。通过对劳动力就业结构的统计分析发现,作为劳动力就业结构替代变量的结构偏离度指标普遍较大,严重滞后于产业结构的调整,说明劳动力就业结构及时有效调整,使资源配置更为有效,对经济增长有益。选取2000-2013年中国省际相关数据作为样本建立模型并进行面板回归分析。对人口抚养比和人力资本对经济增长的研究发现,劳动力结构数量中的年龄结构和劳动力质量与经济增长有显著的相关关系,其中人口抚养比与经济增长是显著负相关,人力资本对经济增长是显著正相关。另外,通过逐一带入控制变量后发现,有些控制变量对解释变量具有明显的约束力,而有些则不显著。最后,根据文章的分析和结合我国经济增长的减速背景提出促进劳动力结构优化的对策建议。例如:加快劳动力就业结构和产业结构协调发展;提高城镇化水平;深化人口政策改革;加大教育投资力度。
[Abstract]:With the decline of the demographic dividend due to the changes in the age structure of China's population, the shift of surplus labor force between industries and regions has resulted in the narrowing of the wage gap and the sharp rise in labour costs, resulting in the shrinking of international demand. After more than 30 years of sustained and rapid economic development, China's economy seems to have entered the deceleration channel after more than 30 years of sustained rapid economic development, due to the increasingly obvious changes in the economic environment such as trade protection. The growth rate has been declining from nearly 10% in the past to 6.9 in 2015. The transition from the structural growth stage to the structural deceleration stage is in line with the general law of world economic development, and also presents challenges and opportunities for the sustainable growth of China's economy at present. Although the trend of deceleration is inevitable, the potential of Chinese economy to achieve high speed growth in the context of deceleration is still enormous. This paper intends to proceed from the point of view of the structure of labor force. First of all, this paper analyzes the growth course of the world's major economies and China's economy. In order to make a basic judgment on the current stage of China's economic development, this paper first analyzes the major economies in the world and finds that, whether developed or emerging economies, economic growth will undergo a process from acceleration to deceleration. This seems to be a general fact of world economic development. Then, starting from the actual situation of China's economy, and analyzing China's per capita GDP from 1978 to 2014, it is found that China's economic growth has obvious periodicity, but through moving average trend line, We find that there is an obvious downward trend in per capita GDP. Therefore, this paper thinks that China's economic growth seems to have entered the deceleration channel, and the stage of Chinese economic development is from high speed to middle high speed. Secondly, From the two dimensions of labor force structure, this paper makes statistical analysis and empirical analysis on China's economic growth. This paper divides the quantity of labor force into the structure of labor force employment, the structure of labor force between urban and rural areas and the age structure of labor force. Human capital refers to the quality of labor force. Through the statistical analysis of the employment structure of labor force, it is found that the index of structural deviation, which is the substitute variable of employment structure of labor force, is generally larger and lags behind the adjustment of industrial structure seriously. It shows that the employment structure of the labor force is adjusted in a timely and effective manner to make the allocation of resources more effective. It is beneficial to the economic growth. Taking the relevant data of China inter-provincial from 2000 to 2013 as the sample to establish the model and carry on the panel regression analysis. The study of the population dependency ratio and human capital on the economic growth found, There is a significant correlation between age structure and quality of labor force structure and economic growth, in which the dependency ratio of population is negatively correlated with economic growth, and human capital is significantly and positively related to economic growth. By bringing in the control variables one by one, we find that some of the control variables are obviously binding on the explanatory variables, while some are not. According to the analysis of the article and the background of deceleration of China's economic growth, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to promote the optimization of labor force structure, such as accelerating the coordinated development of employment structure and industrial structure of labor force, raising the level of urbanization, deepening the reform of population policy; We will increase investment in education.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F249.2

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