甘肃省城镇职工养老金缺口测算与弥补对策研究

发布时间：2018-03-02 16:01

本文选题：人口老龄化　切入点：养老金制度　出处：《西北师范大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：年老是健康前提下人们必然会遭遇的自然生命阶段,人们在老年时期,丧失劳动能力,逐渐退出了参与社会劳动活动,而与此相应,老年人获得保障生活水平的劳动收入逐渐减少或丧失,为了避免老年人在退休后的基本生活水平,政府通过建立养老保障体系强制劳动者在工作时期进行储蓄以及通过部分财政补贴来应对劳动者在年老时出现的“老无所养”的风险。随着现代生活水平和医疗卫生服务水平的提高,人口生育率的大幅度下降,老年人口高龄化现象普遍,老年人口抚养比大幅度上升,使得缴纳养老金的劳动人口减少,而领取养老金的老年人口增多,现有养老保障制度和养老金支付模式不管从制度上还是财务上都面临着持续性的挑战。本文选取甘肃省作为研究区域,以人口老龄化为背景,对区域内人口年龄结构和经济发展水平以及养老金收支状况等数据进行统计分析,获取甘肃省养老金收支状况的现实,考虑到人口老龄化的持续快速增长,养老金历史制度变迁导致的转轨成本以及随着经济发展老年人生活成本的上升等一系列因素,通过建立相应的养老金测算模型,长远来看,区域内养老金未来有出现支付危机的可能。为防止出现养老金财务上的不可持续,保障政府应对养老金支付危机,弥补养老金缺口,文章试图根据甘肃省经济发展水平,参考发达地区应对养老金支付危机的措施提出甘肃省实行的可行办法:政府通过推行渐进式延迟退休、发展多层次的补充养老保险制度、建立甘肃省养老保险风险储备基金等政策来弥补人口老龄化加深所带来的养老金支付缺口;针对养老金的历史债务,即养老金筹资模式由最初的现收现付制向部分积累制转变所造成的政策转轨成本,通过科学的国有资产划拨和发行政府债券部分进行弥补;而针对养老金支付水平提高的缺口,应对宏观经济中的产出波动风险和通货膨胀风险,则需要考虑对养老金进行低风险、有价值的投资,来保证养老金保值增值。养老保险是最复杂的险种,需要通过国家、企业、个人共同参与,保证养老保险制度上的持续性和财务上的持续性。
[Abstract]:Years are always the natural life stage that people will encounter under the premise of health. In old age, people lose their ability to work and gradually withdraw from participating in social labor activities, and accordingly, In order to avoid their basic standard of living after retirement, the working income of the elderly to secure a standard of living has been gradually reduced or lost. The government has forced workers to save during their working hours by establishing an old-age security system, as well as some financial subsidies to cope with the risk of old age. With modern living standards and health care. Improvement in the level of health services, The fertility rate of the population has dropped substantially, the aging of the elderly population is widespread, and the dependency ratio of the elderly population has increased substantially, resulting in a decrease in the number of working people who contribute to pensions and an increase in the number of elderly people receiving pensions. The existing old-age security system and pension payment mode are facing persistent challenges, both institutionally and financially. This paper selects Gansu Province as the research area, taking the aging population as the background. Through the statistical analysis of the age structure of the population and the level of economic development in the region, as well as the status of pension income and expenditure, the reality of pension income and expenditure in Gansu Province is obtained, taking into account the sustained and rapid growth of the aging population, A series of factors, such as the cost of transition caused by the historical change of pension system and the rising living cost of the elderly with the development of economy, are established through the establishment of the corresponding pension calculation model, and in the long run, In order to prevent the pension from becoming financially unsustainable, to ensure the government to deal with the pension payment crisis and to make up for the pension gap, the article tries to make up for the level of economic development in Gansu Province. Referring to the measures taken in developed regions to deal with the pension payment crisis, this paper puts forward some feasible measures for Gansu Province: the government develops a multi-level supplementary pension insurance system by promoting gradual delay in retirement. Establish pension insurance risk reserve fund and other policies in Gansu Province to make up for the gap in pension payment caused by the deepening aging of the population; in view of the historical debt of pension, That is, the policy transition cost caused by the change of pension financing mode from the original pay-as-you-go system to the partial accumulation system is made up by the scientific transfer of state-owned assets and the issuance of government bonds. To deal with the risks of output fluctuations and inflation in the macro economy, we need to consider low-risk, valuable investments in pensions to ensure that they maintain and increase their value. Pension insurance is the most complex type of insurance that needs to pass through the country, through enterprises, Individuals participate together to ensure the sustainability of pension insurance system and financial sustainability.
【学位授予单位】：西北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F842.67

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