基于交通实态观测的海区通航安全评价研究

发布时间：2018-03-31 05:01

本文选题：海区　切入点：AIS　出处：《大连海事大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来航运业不断发展,海运经济的地位日益凸显,船舶数量也增长到一定规模。然而,随着船舶种类的多样化、大型化和高速化,以及海上通航环境的日益复杂,使得海上交通事故频发,成为制约航运发展的一个主要因素。为保障船舶航行安全,减少不必要的航行事故,保障航运业持续发展,有必要对船舶在海上通航安全进行深入研究,建立科学的海上通航安全评价体系,从而为海上安全管理提供一定的依据。海区通航安全影响因素众多,信息采集难度大,各因素重要程度及评价标准存在一定的未知性和模糊性,基于传统的交通实态观测数据难以满足海区通航安全评价的要求,因此利用海量AIS信息经过数据挖掘获得的交通实态观测数据对海区通航安全进行评价,弥补传统交通实态观测数据的不足。在大量阅读相关文献的基础上,本文首先根据海区通航环境的特点,全面研究分析了影响海区通航安全的因素,并基于AIS信息中所能挖掘出的内容,确定基于AIS实态观测的海区通航安全评价指标体系,并对指标体系中各指标的评价标准进行研究。然后从两个角度对海区通航安全进行评价。一是通航安全相对评价,即确定几个不同海区通航安全程度的相对大小,通过多目标多层次模糊优选理论,从层次结构最底层计算,逐渐运算到最高层,最终选出高风险、低风险海区。二是通航安全绝对评价,定量判断某一个海区的通航安全状况,选用应用较广泛的模糊综合评价法对其进行评价;在评价指标权重确定过程中,采用改进的层次分析法—模糊层次分析法确定指标权重,克服传统层次分析方法运算复杂及主观因素影响过大的不足。最后,利用基于AIS数据的船舶交通流特性统计平台统计成山头水域船舶通航数据,运用所建立的海区通航安全评价模型,分别进行海区通航安全相对评价和绝对评价,通过对评价结果分析,验证两种评价模型在海区通航安全评价中的科学性及可行性。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the continuous development of shipping industry, the status of maritime economy has become increasingly prominent, and the number of ships has also increased to a certain scale. However, with the diversification of ship types, large-scale and high-speed, as well as the increasingly complex maritime navigation environment, The frequent occurrence of maritime traffic accidents has become a major factor restricting the development of shipping. In order to ensure the safety of navigation, reduce unnecessary accidents, and ensure the sustainable development of the shipping industry, It is necessary to conduct a deep study on the safety of navigation at sea and establish a scientific evaluation system of maritime navigation safety, which can provide a certain basis for maritime safety management. There are many factors affecting the safety of navigation in the sea area, and it is difficult to collect information. The degree of importance of various factors and the evaluation criteria are unknown and fuzzy to a certain extent. Based on the traditional traffic observation data, it is difficult to meet the requirements of navigational safety evaluation in the sea area. Therefore, the traffic real observation data obtained from massive AIS information through data mining are used to evaluate the navigation safety of the sea area, to make up for the deficiency of the traditional traffic real observation data. In this paper, according to the characteristics of navigation environment in the sea area, the factors affecting the navigation safety of the sea area are studied and analyzed, and based on the contents that can be excavated from the AIS information, the evaluation index system of navigation safety in the sea area based on the real observation of AIS is determined. And the evaluation criteria of each index in the index system are studied. Then the navigable safety of the sea area is evaluated from two angles. One is the relative evaluation of the navigation safety, that is, the relative magnitude of the navigable safety degree of several different sea areas. Based on the theory of multi-objective and multi-level fuzzy optimal selection, from the lowest level of hierarchical structure to the highest level, the high risk and low risk sea area is finally selected. The second is the absolute evaluation of navigable safety to quantitatively judge the navigable safety condition of a certain sea area. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, which is widely used, is used to evaluate the index weight, and the improved analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to determine the index weight in the process of determining the index weight. In order to overcome the disadvantages of traditional analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method, which is complex in operation and too influenced by subjective factors, finally, the statistical platform of ship traffic flow characteristics based on AIS data is used to calculate ship navigation data in mountainous waters. The relative and absolute evaluation of navigable safety in the sea area is carried out by using the established evaluation model of navigation safety in the sea area. The scientific and feasibility of the two evaluation models in the evaluation of navigation safety in the sea area are verified by the analysis of the evaluation results.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U698

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