中国对俄罗斯劳务输出经济效应分析

发布时间：2018-04-13 08:00

本文选题：中国 + 俄罗斯　；参考：《首都经济贸易大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：国际劳务合作是当今世界经济的重要组成部分。中国与俄罗斯作为邻国,两国的劳务合作由来已久。两国的劳动力资源存在显著的互补性,中国劳动力充裕,而俄罗斯面临严峻的人口形势,远东及西伯利亚地区更是地广人稀,适龄劳动力人口不足,这使得中俄劳务合作有了客观的现实基础,因而中俄劳务合作主要是中国对俄进行劳务输出。两国在承包建筑工程、能源、农业、林业等领域展开了广泛的劳务合作,取得了显著的成效。从经济效应考虑,两国的劳务合作都能给双方带来很多福祉。本文首先对中俄劳动力资源状况进行了概述,论述了中国对俄罗斯进行劳务输出的客观基础,之后从各个领域对中俄劳务合作现状进行了论述,然后创新性地从定性分析以及实证分析两方面分析了中国对俄罗斯进行劳务输出的经济效应,本文通过实证分析,探讨中国对俄罗斯进行劳务输出对于两国进出口贸易的影响。通过建立计量模型,并通过层层检验,本文得出结论,中国对俄罗斯劳动力输出每增加1个百分点,两国的进出口贸易总额会相应增加0.349025个百分点。虽然中国对俄罗斯进行劳务输出对拉动中俄两国进出口贸易增长的系数小于中俄国内生产总值之和对贸易的影响系数,但是也并不能掩盖前者对两国进出口贸易额的贡献度。实证中得出的另外一个结论是,中俄进出口贸易额并不能影响中国对俄罗斯进行劳务输出的人数,因而另有其他因素对中国对俄罗斯进行劳务输出起着重要影响。从中国角度看,中国国内政策、法律机制不完备,劳务输出体系不完善;对俄劳务合作行业过于集中,层次低,中方劳务人员素质较低;中国对俄合作企业缺乏资金、规模有限等因素制约了劳务合作。从俄罗斯角度看,俄罗斯政策限制;保护主义过强,且存在安全问题;中国人口威胁论等因素也阻碍了两国的劳务合作。面对这些制约因素,我国应对自身存在的问题予以改善,但是,按照国际经验,劳务接收国的政策是直接影响劳务合作发展状况的主要因素,因此,俄罗斯的劳务合作政策对中国对俄罗斯进行劳务输出的影响更为深远。俄罗斯也已加入了WTO,中俄在经济、文化、政治领域的交流与对话也不断增多,双方互信水平不断提升。我们有理由相信,俄罗斯一定会履行承诺,加大国内开放水平,提高经济透明度,对于国际经济合作尤其是中俄经济合作持更加开放的姿态,这样才能实现其振兴经济的目标,因此,我们看好中俄两国劳务合作前景,中俄双方只有加强劳务合作,加强经济交流,才能互惠互利,实现经济的不断进步与发展。
[Abstract]:International labor cooperation is an important part of the world economy.China and Russia as neighbors, the two countries have a long history of labor cooperation.The labor resources of the two countries are significantly complementary. China is abundant in labor force, while Russia is facing a severe population situation. The far East and Siberia are even more sparsely populated, and the age-appropriate labor force population is insufficient.This makes the labor cooperation between China and Russia have an objective realistic foundation, so the labor cooperation between China and Russia is mainly the export of labor services from China to Russia.The two countries have carried out extensive labor cooperation in the fields of construction, energy, agriculture and forestry, and achieved remarkable results.In terms of economic effects, labor cooperation between the two countries can bring a lot of benefits to both sides.This paper first summarizes the labor resources of China and Russia, discusses the objective basis of labor export from China to Russia, and then discusses the current situation of labor service cooperation between China and Russia from various fields.Then it analyzes the economic effect of China's labor export to Russia from two aspects of qualitative analysis and empirical analysis. Through empirical analysis, this paper discusses the impact of China's labor export to Russia on the import and export trade between the two countries.Through the establishment of measurement model and layer by layer test, this paper concludes that for each increase of 1 percentage point of China's labor force export to Russia, the total import and export trade between the two countries will increase by 0.349025 percentage points.Although the export of labor services from China to Russia has a smaller effect on the growth of Sino-Russian import and export trade than the sum of the gross domestic product of China and Russia, it can not conceal the contribution of the former to the volume of import and export trade between the two countries.Another conclusion of the empirical study is that the volume of Sino-Russian import and export trade can not affect the number of Chinese labor exports to Russia, so there are other factors that play an important role in the export of labor services from China to Russia.From China's point of view, China's domestic policy, legal mechanism and labor export system are not perfect; the labor service cooperation industry with Russia is too concentrated, the level is low, and the quality of the Chinese labor service personnel is relatively low; and the Chinese cooperative enterprises with Russia lack funds.Limited scale and other factors restrict labor cooperation.From Russia's point of view, Russia's policies are restricted, protectionism is too strong, and there are security problems, and the theory of China's population threat also hinders the labor cooperation between the two countries.In the face of these constraints, China should improve its own problems. However, according to international experience, the policies of the receiving countries are the main factors that directly affect the development of labor cooperation.Russia's labor cooperation policy has a more profound impact on China's labor export to Russia.Russia has also joined the WTO.The exchanges and dialogues between China and Russia in the economic, cultural and political fields have also increased, and mutual trust between the two sides has been rising.We have reason to believe that Russia will surely fulfil its commitment to increase the level of domestic opening up and enhance economic transparency, and take a more open stance towards international economic cooperation, especially Sino-Russian economic cooperation, so as to achieve its goal of revitalizing the economy.Therefore, we are optimistic about the prospect of labor cooperation between China and Russia. Only by strengthening labor service cooperation and strengthening economic exchanges can China and Russia achieve mutual benefit and economic progress and development.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F249.2;F125

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