基于熵权的火电厂项目融资风险模糊综合评价研究

发布时间：2018-04-15 15:23

本文选题：火电厂 + 融资风险　；参考：《山西大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：近几年来,我国经济增速很快,电力的消费与需求旺盛,为支持经济发展,保障人民日常工作和生活需要,电力建设任务紧迫而艰巨,每年都会有大批电厂项目进行建设施工,其中以火电厂项目居多。今年年初,中国火力发电网对2016至2018年间,全国拟在建的火电厂项目进行了统计,统计数据显示,全国将会新建592个火电厂项目。对于建设工期长,投资金额巨大的火电厂项目来说,项目融资形式相较于传统融资形式来说,不失为一种行之有效的融资方式,在电厂融资过程中,会受到来自于政治、信用、生产经营、金融等多方面风险因素的影响,因此对项目融资风险进行识别和评价显得尤为重要。本文以深圳B火电厂为例,分析了电厂在融资各阶段中将会面临的各种风险因素,建立了融资风险指标评价体系,引入熵权思想确定各级风险指标权重,结合模糊综合评价模型(Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation Model),对深圳B火电厂项目融资风险进行客观评价,并根据评价的最终结果列出项目为规避各种风险采取的应对措施。深圳B电厂项目融资风险指数介于风险较低和风险一般之间,总体风险水平偏低,说明项目设计安排的融资结构比较合理,通过一系列诸如政府支持、确保原材料供应、保证项目产品销售、分担利率风险、由银行提供履约担保等措施,有效地降低了融资过程中面临的风险。深圳B电厂融资项目是一个典型项目融资案例,该项目融资面临的风险虽有着自身的特点,但也存在多数项目融资风险的共性,对深圳B电厂融资风险进行识别,并作出评价,同时列出相应的风险规避措施,有利于其它相同或类似项目,在设计融资结构和识别、规避融资风险方面进行学习和借鉴。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the economic growth rate of our country is very fast, and the consumption and demand of electric power are exuberant. In order to support the economic development and ensure the daily work and living needs of the people, the task of electric power construction is urgent and arduous. Every year, a large number of power plant projects are constructed and constructed.Most of them are thermal power plant projects.At the beginning of this year, China's thermal power network counted the number of thermal power plants planned to be built nationwide between 2016 and 2018, according to statistics showing that 592 new thermal power plants will be built across the country.For the thermal power plant project with long construction period and huge investment amount, the project financing form is an effective financing method compared with the traditional financing form. In the financing process of the power plant, it will come from politics and credit.It is very important to identify and evaluate the project financing risk because of the influence of many risk factors, such as production and management, finance and so on.Taking Shenzhen B thermal power plant as an example, this paper analyzes the various risk factors that power plant will face in each stage of financing, establishes the evaluation system of financing risk index, and introduces entropy weight to determine the weight of risk index at all levels.Combined with fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation model, the project financing risk of Shenzhen B thermal power plant is evaluated objectively. According to the final result of evaluation, the countermeasures taken by the project to avoid all kinds of risks are listed.The project financing risk index of Shenzhen B Power Plant is between the lower risk and the general risk, and the overall risk level is relatively low. This shows that the financing structure of the project design arrangement is more reasonable. Through a series of government support, it ensures the supply of raw materials.Such measures as ensuring the sale of project products, sharing interest rate risk and providing performance guarantee by banks can effectively reduce the risk in the process of financing.The financing project of Shenzhen B Power Plant is a typical project financing case. Although the risks faced by the project financing have their own characteristics, they also have the commonness of most project financing risks. The financing risks of Shenzhen B Power Plant are identified and evaluated.At the same time, listed the corresponding risk aversion measures, which is beneficial to other similar projects, in the design of financing structure and identification, avoid financing risk for study and reference.
【学位授予单位】：山西大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F426.61;F406.7

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