人民币国际化视角下跨境人民币结算影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-04-15 16:44

本文选题：人民币国际化 + 跨境结算　；参考：《天津财经大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：2015年是我国经济改革、汇率市场化推进重要的一年,其中人民币国际化进程更成为国际瞩目的经济动向。随着我国对外经济贸易的不断扩大,国内经济体系不断完善发展,人民币的国际地位也日益受到重视。二零零九年随着《跨境贸易人民币结算试点管理办法》的出台,五个试点城市率先开展了跨境贸易人民币的结算的试点工作。经过七年时间的发展与试水,截至2015年12月份,全年累计跨境人民币支付结算额达到72300亿元,人民币跨境结算业务发展取得阶段性成果。但尽管如此,由于我国产业结构仍存在诸多不合理处,人民币的回流渠道建设不完整,人民币与美元等主要国际结算货币相比仍存在很大的差距。基于此,对其相关影响因素和发展方向的研究具有深远的现实与实践意义。本文结合跨境贸易货币选择理论,货币国际化理论等学术理论基础,采用理论结合实际的方法,以人民币跨境结算业务为研究对象,并对其发展历程进行梳理与回顾。同时,就其发展现状分析了面临的各类人民币结算困境情境。本文选取2012年1月至2015年12月的月度数据,运用VAR与ECM模型进行人民币跨境结算影响因素分析,发现主要有以下几项影响因素:(1)汇率波动;(2)消费者物价指数;(3)对外贸易出口额;(4)对外贸易进口额;(5)离岸人民币市场发展程度,其中汇率波动和离岸市场发展因素影响效果最为显著。随后,针对ECM与VAR模型采用脉冲响应函数,方差分解等方法进行了描述性统计和实证分析。最后,对人民币跨境结算提出实践参考意义,并结合我国资本项目逐步开放的国情,就人民币汇率形成机制、完善政策法规体系、离岸人民币市场发展、提高我国对外经济发展水平等方面提出相关政策意见与思考。
[Abstract]:The year 2015 is an important year for China's economic reform and the marketization of the exchange rate, in which the internationalization of RMB has become an international economic trend.With the expansion of China's foreign trade and the development of domestic economic system, the international status of RMB has been paid more and more attention.With the promulgation of the "RMB settlement pilot Management measures for Cross-Border Trade" in 2009, five pilot cities took the lead in launching the pilot work of RMB settlement for cross-border trade.After seven years of development and trial water, as of December 2015, the total amount of cross-border RMB payment and settlement reached 7.23 trillion yuan, and the development of cross-border settlement business of RMB has achieved periodic results.However, there are still many unreasonableness in the industrial structure of our country, the construction of the return channel of RMB is not complete, and there is still a big gap between RMB and other major international settlement currencies such as US dollar.Based on this, the research on its influence factors and development direction has profound practical and practical significance.Based on the theory of currency choice of cross-border trade and the theory of currency internationalization, this paper takes RMB cross-border settlement business as the research object, and reviews its development course.At the same time, it analyzes all kinds of situations of RMB settlement dilemma.Based on the monthly data from January 2012 to December 2015, this paper uses VAR and ECM models to analyze the influencing factors of RMB cross-border settlement.It has been found that there are mainly the following influencing factors: 1) Exchange rate fluctuations / 2) Consumer Price Index (3) Foreign Trade exports / exports / 4) Foreign Trade imports / imports / (5) the degree of Development of the Offshore RMB Market,Exchange rate fluctuations and offshore market development factors have the most significant effect.Then, the methods of impulse response function and variance decomposition are used to analyze the ECM and VAR models.Finally, the paper puts forward the practical reference significance to the cross-border settlement of RMB, combined with the national conditions of capital account opening step by step, on the formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate, perfecting the system of policies and regulations, and the development of offshore RMB market.Improve the level of foreign economic development and other aspects of the relevant policy advice and thinking.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832.6

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