深圳市银行信贷、房地产价格和经济增长的互动关系研究

发布时间：2018-05-16 02:29

本文选题：银行信贷 + 房地产价格　；参考：《华南理工大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：从经济学理论的角度来看,银行信贷、房地产价格和经济增长三者之间存在密切的关系。银行信贷是我国房地产市场最主要的资金来源,也是政府调控房地产市场的重要工具之一,房地产市场是关系到国计民生的重要产业之一,对维系经济稳定、推动经济增长十分重要。目前国内对三者关系的研究主要集中于全国层面,且多为房地产价格和银行信贷之间两者关系的研究,然而我国地大物博,各地资源禀赋差异、城市化进程和经济发展差异等都会对当地的房地产市场、经济发展政策等产生较大影响,尤其是一些具有明显区域特点的城市,其银行信贷、房地产价格和经济增长的互动关系如何,该方面研究尚属稀少。近年来我国经济增速普遍放缓,产业升级和结构调整压力明显增大,深圳作为改革开放一直以来的排头兵,其发展速度和发展质量对全国起着重要的示范作用。从整体经济运行来看,近年来深圳地区GDP增长快速,同时其银行信贷投放也增长迅速,数据显示,深圳地区的银行信贷中有相当一部分资金流向了房地产行业,资金集结楼市使得深圳房地产价格近年持续高涨,2015年一手房销售价格涨幅更是达到40%。目前深圳房地产市场的投资过热、价格疯涨现状,给深圳地区的经济健康和金融安全埋下隐患。基于深圳的历史使命和发展现状,有必要对深圳地区银行信贷、房地产价格和经济增长之间的互动关系进行跟踪研究。本文主要按照理论分析-实证分析-对策建议的思路展开研究。本文首先从理论角度剖析了银行信贷、房地产价格和经济增长之间互动关系的影响机制,为深入理解三者作用关系奠定理论基础,并在此基础上初步分析了近年来深圳地区三者的实际表现和作用关系,为下文的实证结果埋下参照。其次,本文选取了2007年3月到2015年12月期间深圳地区银行信贷、房地产价格和经济增长的相关季度数据并对其进行初步加工处理后,根据现代计量经济学理论建立起滞后3期的VAR模型,并在此基础上进行了协整检验和Granger因果关系检验。协整检验结果表明,在深圳地区的实体经济中,银行信贷、房地产价格和GDP之间存在长期协整关系:房地产价格每变化1个百分点,GDP将变化0.0519个百分点,两者之间有较为显著的正向关系;银行信贷每变化1个百分点,GDP将变化0.009个百分点,表明深圳地区的银行信贷增长在拉动经济增长方面作用有限。此外,Granger因果关系检验结果显示,深圳地区的银行信贷总额对房地产价格存在单向影响关系。最后,基于理论分析和实证分析结果,本文针对深圳地区的研究发现提出了五点针对性的政策建议。
[Abstract]:From the angle of economic theory, there is a close relationship among bank credit, real estate price and economic growth. Bank credit is the most important source of funds for the real estate market in our country, and it is also one of the important tools for the government to regulate the real estate market. The real estate market is one of the important industries related to the national economy and the people's livelihood, and it is of great importance to the maintenance of economic stability. It is very important to promote economic growth. At present, the domestic research on the relationship between the three is mainly focused on the national level, and most of them are the research on the relationship between real estate prices and bank credit. The process of urbanization and the differences in economic development will have a great impact on the local real estate market, economic development policies, etc., especially in some cities with obvious regional characteristics, their bank credit, The relationship between real estate prices and economic growth is rare. In recent years, the economic growth rate of our country has generally slowed down, and the pressure of industrial upgrading and structural adjustment has increased obviously. Shenzhen, as the vanguard of reform and opening up, its development speed and quality play an important role in the demonstration of the whole country. Judging from the overall economic operation, in recent years, GDP in the Shenzhen region has grown rapidly, while its bank credit has also increased rapidly. Data show that quite a portion of the bank credit in the Shenzhen area has gone to the real estate industry. The capital build-up in the property market has kept real estate prices soaring in Shenzhen in recent years, with sales of primary homes rising by 40% in 2015. At present, the investment in Shenzhen's real estate market is overheated and prices are soaring, which has laid hidden dangers for the economic health and financial safety of Shenzhen. Based on Shenzhen's historical mission and development situation, it is necessary to track and study the interaction among bank credit, real estate price and economic growth in Shenzhen. This article mainly carries on the research according to the theory analysis-the demonstration analysis-the countermeasure suggestion train of thought. This paper first analyzes the influence mechanism of the interactive relationship among bank credit, real estate price and economic growth from a theoretical point of view, so as to lay a theoretical foundation for a deep understanding of the relationship between the three. On the basis of this, the paper preliminarily analyzes the actual performance and the function relationship of the three in Shenzhen area in recent years, which is a reference for the empirical results below. Secondly, this paper selects the relevant quarterly data of bank credit, real estate price and economic growth in Shenzhen from March 2007 to December 2015, and after processing them, According to the modern econometrics theory, the VAR model with three lag periods is established, and the cointegration test and Granger causality test are carried out on the basis of this model. The results of co-integration test show that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between bank credit, real estate prices and GDP in the real economy of Shenzhen: every 1 percentage point change in real estate prices will change 0.0519 percentage points. There is a significant positive relationship between the two, and every 1 percentage point change in bank credit will change 0.009 percentage points of GDP, indicating that the growth of bank credit in Shenzhen has a limited role in driving economic growth. In addition, Granger causality test results show that the total amount of bank credit in Shenzhen has a one-way impact on real estate prices. Finally, based on the results of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, this paper puts forward five pertinent policy recommendations for the research findings in Shenzhen.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832.4;F299.23;F124.1

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