中国部分省市雾霾影响因素及对比研究

发布时间：2018-05-20 13:36

本文选题：雾霾 + 影响因素　；参考：《陕西师范大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,中国多地出现空气质量日益恶化的情况,“雾霾”也随之进入大众视线,成为社会热点问题之一。本次大范围的爆发雾霾,是生产要素和资源大量消耗的粗放式经济发展必然会带来的环境问题；雾霾还使得能见度降低,城镇的交通事故发生的概率比平时高；此外雾霾还影响大众的健康安全；雾霾问题还是中国工业化进程中面临的巨大挑战。雾霾的产生具有一定的季节性周期,多发于深秋和冬季。其易在有大量污染源排放出一次气溶胶和二次气溶胶的前体物且无风湿度较大的天气里形成。可见雾霾的形成其中一个不可忽略的关键因素就是污染源,而这些污染物多由经济活动产生,故雾霾与经济发展之间的关系桥梁就此搭建。为了进一步探究各省市自治区雾霾影响因素和差异。选择了空气质量指数(AQI)作为雾霾的量化指标。并用天气因素、能源耗量、城镇发展三类指标来对AQI影响因素进行描述。天气因素包括温度、降雨和风力：能源销量包括煤炭、成品油的耗量和天然气消耗量；城镇发展则选取在建工程建筑面积、汽车保有量和第二产业生产总值的占比、城镇人口。其中天气因素是自然变量,能源消耗和城镇发展为是人为变量。本次研究采用聚类分析和全局因子分析来探索雾霾的影响因素。选取了中国25个省市,采集了2013年12月至2015年12月共25个月的相关数据。首先对25个省市的空气质量指数(AQI)进行了统计描述,发现在传统的划分省市区域时,在部分区域内省市间存在着一定差异性,而在区域间部分区域却存在着一定的相似性。故为了对25个省份进行合理分区,采用K均值聚类法,根据各省AQI的动态数据进行分类,最终将所有省市分为三组,并依据雾霾的严重程度,分别命名为重度区、中度区和轻度区。其中,重度区包括北京、河北、河南和山东；中度区包括安徽、黑龙江、湖北、湖南、江苏、吉林、辽宁、陕西、山西、四川、天津、浙江和重庆；轻度区包括福建、甘肃、广东、广西、贵州、江西、上海和云南。随后,再分别对这三组地区进行全局因子分析得到各区的公共因子,并发现三组的公共因子之间存在差异,其中重度区着重的是城镇发展因子(月成品油消耗量、月在建工程的施工面积、月汽车保有量和月城镇人口数),其中三大能源中的煤炭和天然气与第二产业占比出现了相关性；中度区着重的是综合城镇发展因子(月煤炭消耗量、月成品油消耗量、月天然气消耗量、月在建工程的施工面积、月汽车保有量、月城镇人口数),并且第二产业占比单独成为了一个公因子；轻度区中,经济发展因子作为关键公因子包含了除气象指标以外的所有变量。根据本文的结论得出三组区域的省市需要根据各组特点实施治理雾霾的政策。重度区内的省市需采用低排放式优化城镇发展,配合上降低第二产业占比的组合方式；中度区内的省市需采用低排放式优化城镇发展和第二产业内部技术升级以降低能源消耗的方法；轻度区内的省份需要坚持尽可能持续保持优化所有经济活动的低污染性。本文的研究特色和创新之处主要体现在以下两个方面：第一,分析变量的选取和数据频率。雾霾是较为复杂的气象现象,因此选取变量必须要考虑气象变量。而且所选取的数据频率为月度,这也是为了与雾霾的周期性相一致进行了调整,但有些变量不能直接获取月度数据,要通过自定义的计算方法才能获取。第二,根据AQI的动态数据进行聚类分析,得出雾霾不同程度的分组。再根据分组,得出每组之间的影响公因子,进行省际比较分析。
[Abstract]:In recent years, more and more air quality has deteriorated in China. The haze has also entered the public view and became one of the hot issues in the society. This large-scale outbreak of fog and haze is an inevitable environmental problem that will inevitably bring about the extensive consumption of production factors and resources, and the haze also reduces visibility, towns and cities. The probability of traffic accidents is higher than usual; in addition, haze also affects the health and safety of the public, and the haze problem is a huge challenge in the process of industrialization in China. The haze has a certain seasonal cycle, mostly in the late autumn and winter. It is easy to release an aerosol and two aerosols in a large number of sources. It can be seen that one of the key factors that can not be ignored is the source of pollution, and these pollutants are mostly produced by economic activities, so the bridge between haze and economic development is built. In order to further explore the factors and differences of haze in provinces and municipalities. The air quality index (AQI) is used as a quantitative indicator of haze, and the influence factors of AQI are described with weather factors, energy consumption and urban development. The weather factors include temperature, rainfall and wind power: the energy sales include coal, the consumption of finished oil and the consumption of natural gas, and the urban development is selected in the construction area of construction, There are natural variables, energy consumption and urban development are human variables. This study uses cluster analysis and global factor analysis to explore the influence factors of haze. In this study, 25 provinces and cities in China were selected and 25 were collected from December 2013 to December 2015. The relevant data of the month. First, the statistical description of the air quality index (AQI) of the 25 provinces and cities is made. It is found that there are certain differences in the provinces and municipalities in the traditional division of provinces and municipalities, but there are some similarities in some regions. Therefore, the reasonable partition of the 25 provinces and the use of the K mean clustering are used. According to the dynamic data of AQI in each province, the method is divided into three groups, which are divided into three groups. According to the severity of the haze, they are named as severe, moderate and mild. Among them, the severe areas include Beijing, Hebei, Henan and Shandong, and the moderate areas include Anhui, Heilongjiang, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangsu, Jilin, Liaoning, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and four. In Sichuan, Tianjin, Zhejiang and Chongqing, the mild areas include Fujian, Gansu, Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, Jiangxi, Shanghai and Yunnan. Then, the public factors of the three groups are analyzed by the global factor analysis, and the difference between the three groups of public factors is found. Consumption, the construction area of the month, the monthly car ownership and the number of urban population in the month, of which coal and gas in the three major energy sources are related to the proportion of the second industry, and the moderate areas are focused on the comprehensive urban development factors (monthly coal consumption, monthly oil consumption, monthly natural gas consumption, and the construction surface of the construction project. " The product, the monthly car ownership, the monthly urban population number), and the second industry occupation ratio has become a public factor alone; in the mild area, the economic development factor as the key public factor contains all the variables except the meteorological index. According to the conclusion of this article, the province and the city of the three groups need to implement the policy of harnessing the haze according to the characteristics of each group. The provinces and cities in the severe area should adopt the low emission model to optimize the development of cities and towns, cooperate with the combination mode of reducing the proportion of the second industry. The provinces and cities in the moderate area should adopt the method of optimizing the urban development and the upgrading of the internal technology of the second industry to reduce the energy consumption. The provinces in the mild areas need to persist in maintaining the optimization as far as possible. The characteristics and innovation of this paper are mainly reflected in the following two aspects: first, the selection of analysis variables and the frequency of data. Haze is a more complex meteorological phenomenon. Therefore, the selection of variables must consider the meteorological variables. And the frequency of the selected data is monthly, which is also for the fog and haze. The periodicity has been adjusted, but some variables can not get the monthly data directly. Second, according to the dynamic data of the AQI, the clustering analysis is carried out to get the groups of different degrees of fog and haze. Then, according to the group, the influence public factors in each group are obtained, and the interprovincial comparative analysis is carried out.
【学位授予单位】：陕西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：X513

【参考文献】