天津港口物流发展策略研究

发布时间：2018-06-02 10:30

本文选题：天津港 + ARMA模型　；参考：《天津大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：在世界经济一体化迅速发展的当下,进出口贸易经济显得尤其重要,对国家或者区域经济的贡献也越来越大,同时港口物流服务的需求量也慢慢增长这都要归功于进出口贸易的快速发展,而作为物流服务供应链上重要节点的港口在现代物流业中所占的比重也越来越大。根据天津统计年鉴统计,天津绝大部分进出口贸易的物流服务都由天津港承担,所以天津进出口贸易的发展中天津港物流业的发展水平显得尤为重要。截止至2014年,天津港货物吞吐量达5.4亿吨,集装箱吞吐量达4.53亿吨,同时居世界第四位。进出口贸易总额近些年持续、快速的增长,特别是面对国家“一带一路”重大战略实施的新机遇,这几年天津港进出口贸易额增长非常迅猛,但是天津进出口贸易的发展比天津港的发展对比显得更快,天津港还出现了几点问题:理念落后、功能性产能不足和过剩等。在发展国家“一带一路”重大战略的背景下,通过分析天津港物流业的发展现状、存在问题、发展条件等,本文建立了多元回归和ARMA模型,对天津市未来5年的港口物流服务需求量和自身承载能力进行预测,旨在说明天津市物流有扩大的必要性;通过建立SWOT模型,提出了几点天津港物流发展的对策,以期在未来天津港物流发展中得到借鉴。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of world economic integration, the import and export trade economy is particularly important, and its contribution to the national or regional economy is increasing. At the same time, the demand for port logistics services is also slowly increasing, which is due to the rapid development of import and export trade, and as an important node in the logistics supply chain, the port accounts for an increasingly large proportion in the modern logistics industry. According to statistics of Tianjin Statistical Yearbook, Tianjin Port undertakes most of the logistics services of import and export trade, so the development level of Tianjin Port logistics industry is particularly important in the development of Tianjin import and export trade. By 2014, Tianjin Port's cargo throughput reached 540 million tons and container throughput reached 453 million tons, ranking fourth in the world. The total volume of import and export trade has been increasing continuously and rapidly in recent years, especially in the face of the new opportunity of implementing the important strategy of "Belt and Road", the volume of import and export trade of Tianjin Port has been increasing very rapidly in recent years. However, the development of Tianjin import and export trade is more rapid than that of Tianjin Port. There are several problems in Tianjin Port: backward concept, insufficient functional capacity and excess. Under the background of developing the important strategy of "Belt and Road" of the country, this paper establishes the multiple regression and ARMA model by analyzing the present situation, existing problems and developing conditions of the logistics industry in Tianjin Port. This paper forecasts the demand for port logistics service and the carrying capacity of Tianjin in the next five years in order to explain the necessity of the expansion of Tianjin logistics, and through the establishment of SWOT model, puts forward some countermeasures for the development of Tianjin port logistics. With a view to the future of Tianjin Port logistics development to be used for reference.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F552.7;F259.27

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