回惠租借与战时中国通货膨胀研究

发布时间：2018-06-13 01:51

本文选题：抗日战争 + 回惠租借　；参考：《河南大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：中国抗日战争是世界反法西斯战争中不可分割的重要组成部分。太平洋战争爆发后,美国通过“租借法案”与中国正式形成租借关系。根据《中美租借协定》,美方向中方输送援华物资和投入军队等,而中方接受援助的同时还需以回惠租借(Reverse Lend-Lease)形式向来华作战的美军部队提供物资与劳务,所以中美租借关系是双向的援助关系。抗战期间,美军在华军事投入为抵御日本侵略,增强中国士兵士气具有重要意义。但是美军的租借援助还是具有局限性,无法满足中国战时内需也无法有力支持中国正面抗战。以往学界对于战时中美关系的研究多从政治和军事角度考虑,认为美方战时援助为中国抗战取得胜利发挥巨大的积极作用。但是较少关注回惠租借关系的负面影响,尤其美军援助对中国经济影响的研究极为薄弱。抗日战争期间,大后方的通货膨胀问题大致分为两个阶段,在1941年珍珠港事件爆发前,物价上涨较为平缓,太平洋战争爆发后,中国通货膨胀迅速加快,这与回惠租借不无关系。笔者通过搜集整理前人关于租借援助的史料,前往各地档案馆搜集一手档案资料,翻阅民国报刊和国民党政府统计资料,理清了战时中方为美军在华开支的垫款数额和美方清偿问题。中方为在华美军开支进行多次垫付,双方就美军开支垫款的偿还问题进行多次交涉,最终抗战期间中方共替美方垫款2460亿元,美方共偿还垫款折合法币共计327亿元,不足中方垫款的14%。驻华美军的巨额垫款未及时得到清偿,国民政府无奈只能扩大货币发行量以获取铸币税从而弥补财政赤字,最终引发恶性通货膨胀。本文量化了回惠租借关系对战时中国通货膨胀的作用。在对一系列文献史料分析的基础上,本文回顾了回惠租借对中国战时经济产生的影响。基于宏观经济学古典模型,构建家庭、厂商和政府三部门行为方程组及市场均衡条件,分析了战时财政货币政策与通货膨胀的关系。在此基础上,选取国统区7个省份和地区战时的主要城市物价指数、在华美军垫款额、国统区七个省份和地区历年财政预算和其他变量,构建战时省际面板数据并采用动态面板GMM估计方法,检验国民政府战时财政货币政策和美军在华开支对战时通货膨胀的影响。本文发现,美军在华开支每增加10%,导致当期物价指数升高7.8%,地方政府财政预算增加10%,会提高当期物价水平约1%。驻华美军军事基地的修筑和美军的军事行动也会导致所在省份物价水平明显上涨。本文认为,国民政府执行的饮鸩止渴式的扩张性财政政策和货币政策是通货膨胀的原因,而回惠租借中垫付驻华美军巨额的开支和美军军事基地的修建,则进一步导致通货膨胀的加剧。以往研究将战时和战后中国经济的崩溃归因于国民政府反通货膨胀政策的失败以及连年巨大财政赤字,尤其庞大的军事开支所致。本文量化了战时财政政策和美军垫款对中国通货膨胀的作用,认为中国对美军巨额的回惠租借加剧了国统区通货失控的局面,这一结论为战时中国恶性通货膨胀问题解释做以补充。
[Abstract]:China's Anti Japanese war is an inseparable and important part of the world anti fascist war. After the outbreak of the Pacific War, the United States formally formed a loan relationship with China through the "lease bill". According to the Sino US lease agreement, the United States conveyed the Chinese goods to China and put into the army and so on, while the Chinese side accepted the assistance to return to the rent. In the form of Reverse Lend-Lease, the U. S. troops who fought in China are provided with goods and services, so the renting relationship between China and the United States is a two-way aid relationship. During the war of resistance against Japan, the military input in China is of great significance to resist Japanese aggression and enhance the morale of Chinese soldiers. During the war, domestic demand could not strongly support China's positive anti Japanese war. In the past, the study of Sino US relations in the past wartime was mostly considered from the political and military perspectives, and believed that the US war assistance had played a great positive role in the victory of the war of resistance in China. But less attention was paid to the negative impact of the return on renting relations, especially the American aid to China's economic shadow. During the war of resistance against Japan, the inflation problem in the rear area was roughly divided into two stages. Before the outbreak of the Pearl Harbor incident in 1941, the price rise was relatively slow. After the outbreak of the Pacific War, China's inflation speeded up, which was not related to the return to leased lease. Historical data, go to various local archives to collect one hand archives, read the press of the Republic of China and the statistics of the Kuomintang government, and clarify the amount of money paid by the Chinese army in China in wartime and the problem of the US side's payment. During the war, the Chinese side made a total of 246 billion yuan for the United States, and the United States paid a total of 32 billion 700 million yuan for the total repayment of the money. The huge amounts of money for the 14%. troops stationed in China were not paid in time. The national government had no choice but to expand the currency issue to obtain the mint tax to make up the deficit and eventually lead to malignant inflation. This article quantified this article. On the basis of a series of literature historical data analysis, this paper reviews the impact of Hui leased on China's wartime economy on the basis of a series of literature historical data. Based on the Classical Macroeconomics model, the three sectors of the family, the manufacturer and the government are constructed and the market equilibrium conditions are set up, and the financial finance is analyzed. On the basis of the relationship between monetary policy and inflation, the paper selects the main city price index of 7 provinces and regions of the Kuomintang region and the financial budgets and other variables of the wartime army cushion, seven provinces and regions of the Kuomintang region, and constructs the wartime inter provincial panel data and uses the dynamic panel GMM estimation method to test the wartime of the national government. Financial and monetary policy and the impact of American spending on wartime inflation. This article found that US military expenditure in China increased by 10%, leading to a 7.8% increase in the current price index and 10% of the local government budget, which would increase the current price level about 1%. in China and the military operations of the US Army. This article holds that the expansionary fiscal policy and monetary policy implemented by the national government is the cause of inflation, while the huge expenditure and the construction of US military bases in China are further aggravated. The collapse of the economy is attributable to the failure of the national government's anti inflation policy and the huge fiscal deficit, especially the huge military expenditure. This paper quantifies the effect of wartime fiscal policy and the American army's cushion on China's inflation, and believes that the huge return on loan in China has aggravated the situation of uncontrolled currency in the Kuomintang region. On the wartime China's explanation of hyperinflation.
【学位授予单位】：河南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F822.9

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