人民币汇率变动对新疆FDI影响研究
发布时间：2018-07-24 19:25
【摘要】：改革开放以来,国际直接投资取得了快速的发展。2014年我国首次超过美国成为全球最大的国际直接投资国,全年共吸收1290亿美元,被评为“最有吸引力”的投资国。汇率与FDI关系的研究起源于布雷顿森林体系崩溃,原有的体系崩溃后,各国相继实施浮动汇率制度。新疆作为丝绸之路经济带的中心区域,中国与中亚各国交流的窗口,国际直接投资带动新疆实现产业升级和结构调整,对于新疆的经济发展具有至关重要的作用。本文在遵循相对成本理论、相对财富理论、区位转移理论、风险偏好理论理论等一般理论的基础上,极大的丰富和发展了汇率变动对FDI的相关理论。研究新疆FDI与汇率变动的关系重要的理论意义和实践意义。本研究在遵循相对成本理论、相对财富理论、区位转移理论、风险偏好理论的基础上,利用1994—2014年统计数据,对人民币汇率变动对新疆FDI影响研究。首先人民币汇率变动对新疆FDI的影响状况,主要按阐述经济转轨时期双重汇率制度及汇率变动状况、汇率并轨时期钉住汇率制度及汇率变动状况、有管理的浮动汇率制度及汇率变动状况;阐述新疆FDI总体规模的状况、新疆FDI投资行业的状况、新疆FDI投资地区的状况;阐述人民币汇率变动对新疆FDI的影响现状的分析;其次人民币汇率变动对新疆FDI影响的实证分析。对人民币汇率变动对新疆FDI规模影响的实证分析,对指标的选取与数据的说明,模型的选择与实证方法,对人民币汇率变动对新疆FDI总体规模的影响实证分析;对人民币汇率变动对新疆地区不同类型的国际直接投资影响的实证分析,对指标的选取与数据的说明,模型的选择与实证方法,人民币汇率变动对新疆出口导向型FDI影响的实证分析,人民币汇率变动对新疆服务导向型FDI影响的实证分析;对人民币汇率变动对新疆地区不同地区的国际直接投资影响的实证分析,对指标的选取与数据的说明,模型的选择与实证方法,先是模型的选择,人民币汇率变动对南疆FDI影响的实证分析,人民币汇率变动对北疆FDI影响的实证分析;最后,对于本章得出的结论进行总结。实证结果表明人民币汇率升值抑制新疆总体规模FDI,汇率波动会抑制新疆总体规模FDI,人民币升值会抑制新疆出口导向型FDI,人民币升值会促进新疆服务导向型FDI,人民币汇率升值抑制北疆FDI,人民币汇率升值促进南疆FDI。本文根据实证结果提出了对策建议,人民币汇率贬值和升值是中国人民银行所考虑关注的事情。对于新疆地方政府而言,要应对人民币升值或者贬值后,地方政府应该采取相应对策,首先,人民币贬值背景下,调整相应的政策吸收国际直接投资。改善投资硬环境和软环境,调整法规政策,以期促进服务导向型FDI,促进南疆地区吸收更多的FDI。其次,人民币升值背景下,调整相应的政策吸收国际直接投资。在升值背景下,地方政府应该积极制定相关的投资政策、产业政策、税收政策、金融政策等来吸引国际直接投资,需要更多的合理引导FDI。最后,人民币保持稳定背景下,采取相应的政策促进国际直接投资。新疆充分发挥强大的产业关联效应,实现技术经济的共同发展。从区域发展的角度方向,应积极引导外商投向基础设施、基础制造、装备制造、高科技产业等等。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the international direct investment has made rapid development in.2014 years. In the first time, China exceeded the United States and became the largest international direct investment country in the world. The total absorption of US $129 billion was the most attractive investment country for the whole year. The study of the relationship between exchange rate and FDI originated from the collapse of the Layton forest system and the collapse of the original system, As the central region of the economic belt of the Silk Road, Xinjiang is the center of the economic belt of the Silk Road, the window of exchange between China and the countries of Central Asia, and the international direct investment to promote the industrial upgrading and structural adjustment of Xinjiang, which plays a vital role in the economic development of Xinjiang. On the basis of the general theory of position transfer theory and risk preference theory, it greatly enriches and develops the relative theory of exchange rate change to FDI. It is important to study the theoretical and practical significance of the relationship between Xinjiang FDI and exchange rate change. On the basis of the statistical data from 1994 to 2014, the influence of RMB exchange rate changes on the Xinjiang FDI is studied. First, the influence of the change of RMB exchange rate on the Xinjiang FDI, mainly according to the dual exchange rate regime and exchange rate changes in the period of economic transition, the exchange rate system and exchange rate changes in the period of the exchange rate, and the fluctuation of management. Exchange rate system and exchange rate change state, the situation of Xinjiang FDI overall scale, Xinjiang FDI investment industry status, Xinjiang FDI investment area status, the analysis of the impact of RMB exchange rate change on Xinjiang FDI; secondly, the empirical analysis of the influence of RMB exchange rate change to Xinjiang FDI. The change of RMB exchange rate to Xinjiang FDI regulation The empirical analysis of the influence of the model, the selection of the index and the data, the selection of the model and the empirical method, the empirical analysis of the influence of RMB exchange rate change on the overall scale of the FDI in Xinjiang; the analysis of the impact of the change of the exchange rate of RMB on the different types of international direct investment in Xinjiang, the selection of the indexes and the explanation of the data. The empirical analysis of the effect of RMB exchange rate change on Xinjiang export oriented FDI, the empirical analysis of the impact of RMB exchange rate change on Xinjiang service oriented type, the empirical analysis of the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on the international direct investment in different regions of Xinjiang, and the selection of indicators and data. The selection and empirical method of the model, first the choice of the model, the empirical analysis of the influence of RMB exchange rate on the FDI in southern Xinjiang, the empirical analysis of the influence of RMB exchange rate on the FDI in Northern Xinjiang. Finally, the conclusion is summed up in this chapter. The empirical results show that the appreciation of RMB exchange rate inhibits the overall scale of Xinjiang FDI, and the exchange rate fluctuations will be suppressed. The overall scale of Xinjiang is FDI, the appreciation of RMB will inhibit the Xinjiang export oriented FDI, the appreciation of RMB will promote the service oriented FDI of Xinjiang, the appreciation of RMB exchange rate inhibits FDI in Northern Xinjiang, and the appreciation of RMB exchange rate promotes the FDI. in southern Xinjiang, and this paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions based on the empirical results. For Xinjiang local government, the local government should take corresponding countermeasures to cope with the appreciation or depreciation of the RMB. First, under the background of the depreciation of the RMB, the corresponding policies should be adjusted to absorb the international direct investment, improve the investment hard environment and soft environment, and adjust the regulations and policies in order to promote the service oriented FDI and promote the south. Under the background of the appreciation, the local government should actively formulate relevant investment policies, industrial policies, tax policies and financial policies to attract international direct investment under the background of appreciation. In the context of appreciation, the local government should attract more international direct investment, which needs more reasonable guidance of the FDI., and the RMB will be maintained at the end. Under the stable background, we should adopt the corresponding policy to promote the international direct investment. Xinjiang should give full play to the strong industrial association effect and realize the common development of technology and economy. From the perspective of regional development, we should actively guide foreign investment to infrastructure, basic manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, high technology industry and so on.
【学位授予单位】：石河子大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6
本文编号：2142408
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the international direct investment has made rapid development in.2014 years. In the first time, China exceeded the United States and became the largest international direct investment country in the world. The total absorption of US $129 billion was the most attractive investment country for the whole year. The study of the relationship between exchange rate and FDI originated from the collapse of the Layton forest system and the collapse of the original system, As the central region of the economic belt of the Silk Road, Xinjiang is the center of the economic belt of the Silk Road, the window of exchange between China and the countries of Central Asia, and the international direct investment to promote the industrial upgrading and structural adjustment of Xinjiang, which plays a vital role in the economic development of Xinjiang. On the basis of the general theory of position transfer theory and risk preference theory, it greatly enriches and develops the relative theory of exchange rate change to FDI. It is important to study the theoretical and practical significance of the relationship between Xinjiang FDI and exchange rate change. On the basis of the statistical data from 1994 to 2014, the influence of RMB exchange rate changes on the Xinjiang FDI is studied. First, the influence of the change of RMB exchange rate on the Xinjiang FDI, mainly according to the dual exchange rate regime and exchange rate changes in the period of economic transition, the exchange rate system and exchange rate changes in the period of the exchange rate, and the fluctuation of management. Exchange rate system and exchange rate change state, the situation of Xinjiang FDI overall scale, Xinjiang FDI investment industry status, Xinjiang FDI investment area status, the analysis of the impact of RMB exchange rate change on Xinjiang FDI; secondly, the empirical analysis of the influence of RMB exchange rate change to Xinjiang FDI. The change of RMB exchange rate to Xinjiang FDI regulation The empirical analysis of the influence of the model, the selection of the index and the data, the selection of the model and the empirical method, the empirical analysis of the influence of RMB exchange rate change on the overall scale of the FDI in Xinjiang; the analysis of the impact of the change of the exchange rate of RMB on the different types of international direct investment in Xinjiang, the selection of the indexes and the explanation of the data. The empirical analysis of the effect of RMB exchange rate change on Xinjiang export oriented FDI, the empirical analysis of the impact of RMB exchange rate change on Xinjiang service oriented type, the empirical analysis of the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on the international direct investment in different regions of Xinjiang, and the selection of indicators and data. The selection and empirical method of the model, first the choice of the model, the empirical analysis of the influence of RMB exchange rate on the FDI in southern Xinjiang, the empirical analysis of the influence of RMB exchange rate on the FDI in Northern Xinjiang. Finally, the conclusion is summed up in this chapter. The empirical results show that the appreciation of RMB exchange rate inhibits the overall scale of Xinjiang FDI, and the exchange rate fluctuations will be suppressed. The overall scale of Xinjiang is FDI, the appreciation of RMB will inhibit the Xinjiang export oriented FDI, the appreciation of RMB will promote the service oriented FDI of Xinjiang, the appreciation of RMB exchange rate inhibits FDI in Northern Xinjiang, and the appreciation of RMB exchange rate promotes the FDI. in southern Xinjiang, and this paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions based on the empirical results. For Xinjiang local government, the local government should take corresponding countermeasures to cope with the appreciation or depreciation of the RMB. First, under the background of the depreciation of the RMB, the corresponding policies should be adjusted to absorb the international direct investment, improve the investment hard environment and soft environment, and adjust the regulations and policies in order to promote the service oriented FDI and promote the south. Under the background of the appreciation, the local government should actively formulate relevant investment policies, industrial policies, tax policies and financial policies to attract international direct investment under the background of appreciation. In the context of appreciation, the local government should attract more international direct investment, which needs more reasonable guidance of the FDI., and the RMB will be maintained at the end. Under the stable background, we should adopt the corresponding policy to promote the international direct investment. Xinjiang should give full play to the strong industrial association effect and realize the common development of technology and economy. From the perspective of regional development, we should actively guide foreign investment to infrastructure, basic manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, high technology industry and so on.
【学位授予单位】：石河子大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6
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