中国—新加坡自由贸易区贸易效应研究

发布时间：2018-07-25 18:29

【摘要】：新加坡是东南亚地区中经济发展程度最高的国家,也是亚洲排名第二的发达国家。2008年中国-新加坡自由贸易区正式成立,与2010年中国与东盟国家成立的自贸区的全面成立来说,时间更早,同时覆盖货物贸易、服务贸易中产品的范围更大,开放程度更高。以往的文献资料分析中国和新加坡的产业结构,认为两国产业之间更多地体现出互补性而不是竞争性,而互补型的产业结构更能够促进两国的贸易发展。目前,两国的贸易伙伴关系不仅具有经济意义,在复杂的国际政治中更具有战略意义。目前,距离两国自贸区成立已有8年多的时间,自贸区到底有没有发挥出促进两国贸易的作用?就其产生的静态贸易效应来说,到底产生了净的贸易创造效应还是净贸易转移效应?对中国还是新加坡产生的效果更大?这些问题都需要我们进行进一步的分析和解答。本文将从理论研究与实证计量两方面入手,深入研究中国与新加坡的贸易效应,并按照分析的结果针对各方提出相应的建议和对策。本文的理论分析部分采用关税同盟的理论。实证分析分成两个部分,首先用显示性竞争优势指数和贸易结合度指数这两个指数来分析自贸区的建立对两国带来的贸易效果,其次运用巴拉萨模型分析两国的静态贸易效应。结果显示,自贸区的成立在更大程度上扩大了中国的出口,对新加坡产生了更加明显的进口贸易创造效应。
[Abstract]:Singapore is the country with the highest level of economic development in Southeast Asia and the second largest developed country in Asia. In 2008, the China-Singapore Free Trade area was formally established, as compared with the full establishment of the Free Trade area between China and ASEAN countries in 2010. Earlier, also covering trade in goods, trade in services in a wider range of products, a higher degree of openness. After analyzing the industrial structure of China and Singapore in the past, it is concluded that the industrial structure of the two countries is more complementary than competitive, and the complementary industrial structure can promote the development of trade between the two countries. At present, the trade partnership between the two countries has not only economic significance, but also strategic significance in complex international politics. At present, it has been more than eight years since the establishment of the free trade zone between the two countries. Has the free trade zone played a role in promoting trade between the two countries?. As far as the static trade effect is concerned, whether it has a net trade creation effect or a net trade transfer effect? Is it more effective for China or Singapore? These questions need further analysis and solution. This paper will study the trade effect between China and Singapore from two aspects of theoretical research and empirical measurement, and put forward corresponding suggestions and countermeasures according to the results of the analysis. The theoretical analysis of this paper adopts the theory of customs union. The empirical analysis is divided into two parts. Firstly, the paper analyzes the trade effect brought by the establishment of the free trade zone on the two countries by using the two indexes of the display competitive advantage index and the trade combination index, and then uses the Barraza model to analyze the static trade effect of the two countries. The results show that the establishment of the Free Trade Zone has expanded China's exports to a greater extent and has a more obvious effect on Singapore's import trade creation.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.7;F753.39

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