基于蒙特卡罗模拟的土地出让底价合理性研究

发布时间：2018-08-17 14:05

【摘要】：土地价值和价格在国家、社会和生活中,一直处于重要地位。在近年来“地王”频现,地价溢价率极高的情况下,对土地出让底价的研究又成为了土地管理者和财政管理者等相关部门的焦点。因此,如何讨论土地出让底价的合理性具有重要意义。本文以醴陵市为例,在系统分析地租地价、土地价格影响因素以及评估方法等重要理论的前提下,以2010-2014年醴陵市土地出让数据、醴陵市相关住宅楼盘数据、醴陵市统计年鉴等资料为基础,运用蒙特卡罗模拟评估51宗土地。从中得到每块宗地土地出让底价的合理区间,通过对比宗地底价,区别出符合蒙特卡罗模拟估值区间的宗地地块和不在蒙特卡罗模拟估值区间的宗地地块,在此基础上深入分析偏离蒙特卡罗模拟估值区间内的具体原因。研究结果表明：在51宗土地中,有29宗土地出让价格在蒙特卡罗模拟估值区间内,即是合理的土地出让底价；而另有22宗地块土地出让价格不在估值区间内,即属于不合理的土地出让底价。具体分析,得到样本中偏离蒙特卡罗模拟估值区间的主要原因在于受醴陵市产业政策影响,醴陵经济开发区的形成和发展,重要交通路线的建设、变更对周边土地的辐射作用。基于此,提出结合土地市场发展变化,适时更新局部基准地价,完善地价动态体系监测,建立健全土地和房产案例库等建议,为更有效地评估土地价格提供条件。
[Abstract]:The value and price of land have always been in an important position in the country, society and life. In recent years, with the frequent emergence of "land king" and the extremely high premium rate of land price, the research on the base price of land transfer has become the focus of the relevant departments such as land managers and financial managers. Therefore, it is of great significance to discuss the rationality of the floor price of land transfer. This paper takes Liling City as an example, on the premise of systematically analyzing the important theories of land rent and land price, influencing factors of land price and evaluation methods, taking the land transfer data of Liling City from 2010 to 2014, and the relevant residential property data of Liling City. Based on the statistical yearbooks of Liling City, 51 land samples were evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation. From this, we get the reasonable interval of the floor price of each plot of land, and by comparing the base price of the land, we distinguish the plots that accord with the Monte-Carlo simulation valuation interval and those that are not in the Monte-Carlo simulation valuation interval. On this basis, the specific reasons for deviating from the Monte Carlo simulation valuation range are analyzed in depth. The results show that out of 51 land plots, 29 are within the Monte-Carlo simulation valuation range, which is the reasonable floor price of the land transfer, while the other 22 are not within the valuation range. That is, unreasonable land transfer floor price. The main reasons for deviating from the Monte Carlo estimation range in the sample are the influence of the industrial policy of Liling, the formation and development of Liling Economic Development Zone, the construction of important transportation routes, and the radiation effect on the surrounding land. Based on this, some suggestions such as updating local benchmark land price timely, perfecting land price dynamic system monitoring and establishing and perfecting land and real estate case bank are put forward, which can provide conditions for more effective evaluation of land price.
【学位授予单位】：湖南农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F224;F299.23

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