家庭金融资产选择的行为偏好及影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-08-28 18:03

【摘要】：伴随着经济金融的发展,家庭的收入逐渐提升,居民理财意识的逐步增强,家庭的投资需求逐渐凸显,家庭的投资行为日益频繁。家庭的资产结构逐渐发生了变化:非金融资产比重逐渐下降,金融资产比重逐渐上升,家庭从单一的偏好储蓄型资产,逐渐到参与股票市场和风险资本市场,金融资产组合多样化、投资的分散化特征逐渐明显。家庭资产结构变化的背后是家庭资产选择行为的改变,资产选择行为的改变背后是家庭行为偏好的差异。家庭的资产选择行为是家庭决策的重要内容,包含了家庭在金融资产和非金融资产之间、无风险资产和风险资产之间进行选择(Bartiloro et al.,2011),家庭资产选择行为的改变表明家庭决策方式的改变。家庭根据自身的偏好来进行金融资产组合的配置,偏好不同会导致家庭金融资产选择行为的差异,从而使得家庭资产组合结构存在差异。由此引出的家庭资产选择是否存在行为偏好,行为偏好是什么,不同家庭的资产选择行为偏好是怎样的,有什么差异,哪些因素会影响家庭金融资产选择的行为,都是值得深入分析的问题。为了进一步研究家庭金融资产选择的行为,本文基于行为偏好的视角,研究家庭金融资产选择的行为和影响家庭金融资产选择行为的相关因素。对于引导家庭优化资产结构,促进家庭参与金融市场,推进金融市场的发展具有重要意义。基于家庭资产选择的变化,文本侧重于研究家庭金融资产选择的行为偏好,以及影响家庭资产选择行为的因素。为此,本文遵循理论分析→实证分析→结论和建议的研究逻辑,运用规范分析和实证分析相结合的方式,从家庭金融资产的现状出发,以分析家庭资产选择行为的偏好和影响因素为主要目的,采用了2011年中国家庭金融调查数据,详细描述了家庭金融资产选择的行为偏好是什么,以及影响因素有哪些,以期为引导家庭进行合理的资产选择,促进家庭参与金融市场,推动金融市场的发展提出建议。具体而言,本文首先详细阐述了家庭金融资产选择的理论背景和现实背景,回顾了家庭金融、资产选择的国内外相关文献,建立了理论分析、描述性统计分析、实证分析的研究框架。基于资产组合理论(经典资产组合理论和行为资产组合理论)、经典决策理论(预期效应理论和前景理论)和预期理论的基础,建立家庭金融资产选择行为偏好的理论分析框架。分析了家庭收入、家庭预期、社会资本和家庭结构等因素对家庭金融资产选择行为的理论影响,并提出了本文的研究假设。在理论分析的基础上,采用2011年中国家庭金融调查数据从整体视角和结构视角两方面分析家庭金融资产选择的行为偏好,结构视角主要从不同收入水平、不同年龄结构、不同教育水平、城镇和农村、东中西部区域等五个方面来进一步分析了家庭金融资产选择的行为偏好及差异。实证方面,本文建立了影响风险资产参与率的Probit模型和影响风险资产参与深度的Tobit模型,从整体角度、城乡区域角度和东中西部区域角度分析了哪些因素会影响家庭参与金融市场。并通过替换收入、预期、社会资本等变量对模型进行了稳健型检验。最后,根据研究结论提出促进家庭参与金融市场的政策建议。研究发现:(1)我国家庭资产选择总体呈现出偏好稳健型资产的特征,风险资产参与率和参与深度较低。(2)结构视角下,收入水平高的家庭更偏好风险资产,风险资产参与程度高,收入水平低的家庭则更倾向于无风险资产;年龄对家庭风险资产参与呈先上升后下降的倒“U”型形状;教育程度越高的家庭风险资产参与广度和深度均更高,对风险资产的偏好程度更高;城镇家庭金融资产组合比农村家庭更具有多样性,更偏好风险资产;东中西部家庭风险资产偏好程度东部最高、中部其次、西部最低。(3)实证分析结果显示家庭收入、社会资本、教育程度能够有效的促进家庭参与金融市场,提高风险资产的参与广度和参与深度。(4)家庭金融资产选择行为存在明显的年龄效应和房产挤出效应,随着年龄的增长风险投资呈先上升后下降的倒“U”型状,年龄效应明显;房产比重对家庭风险资产参与和参与深度的影响显著为负,说明房产投资会挤出金融资产投资。对比发现,城镇家庭和东部家庭存在明显的年龄效应和房产挤出效应。(5)乐观的房价预期会导致房产投资替代金融投资,产生替代效应;由于房产替代效应、“股经”背离、预期偏差和滞后性的存在,乐观的经济预期会降低家庭金融资产的投资,说明宏观市场的股经背离传导到了微观的家庭资产选择行为上。基于研究结论,为了积极引导家庭参与金融市场,促进金融市场的发展,提出了相关建议。
[Abstract]:Along with the development of economy and finance, the income of the family is gradually raised, the awareness of financial management is gradually strengthened, the investment demand of the family is gradually highlighted, and the investment behavior of the family is increasingly frequent. The change of household asset structure is the change of household asset selection behavior, and the change of household asset selection behavior is the difference of household behavior preference. The important content of the policy includes the choice between financial assets and non-financial assets, between riskless assets and risky assets (Bartiloro et al., 2011). The change of household asset selection behavior indicates the change of household decision-making mode. The differences of household financial asset selection behavior lead to the differences of household asset portfolio structure. Whether there is a behavior preference, what is the behavior preference, what is the behavior preference of different households, what is the difference, and what factors will affect the behavior of household financial asset selection are all the results. In order to further study the behavior of household financial asset selection, this paper studies the behavior of household financial asset selection and related factors affecting household financial asset selection from the perspective of behavior preference. Based on the change of household asset selection, this paper focuses on the behavioral preference of household financial asset selection and the factors affecting the behavior of household asset selection. Based on the current situation of household financial assets and with the main purpose of analyzing the preferences and influencing factors of household asset selection behavior, this paper uses the data of China Family Financial Survey in 2011 to describe in detail what is the behavior preference of household financial assets selection and what are the influencing factors in order to guide households to make reasonable asset selection. Specifically, this paper first elaborates the theoretical and practical background of family financial asset selection, reviews the domestic and foreign literature on family finance and asset selection, and establishes the research frame of theoretical analysis, descriptive statistical analysis and empirical analysis. On the basis of portfolio theory (classical portfolio theory and behavioral portfolio theory), classical decision theory (expectation effect theory and Prospect theory) and expectation theory, a theoretical analysis framework of household financial asset selection preference is established. Based on the theoretical analysis, this paper analyzes the behavior preference of household financial asset selection from the overall perspective and the structural perspective with the data from the 2011 China Family Financial Survey. The structural perspective is mainly from different income levels, different age structures, and No. With the same level of education, urban and rural areas, Eastern and western regions and other five aspects to further analyze the behavior preferences and differences of household financial asset selection. This paper analyzes the factors that affect household participation in the financial market from the regional perspective and makes a robust test of the model through variables such as replacement income, expectation and social capital. (2) Families with high income preferred risky assets, while those with high income preferred risky assets. Families with low income preferred risky assets, while those with low income preferred riskless assets. The higher the extent and depth of household risky assets participation, the higher the degree of preference for risky assets; urban household financial portfolio is more diversified than rural households, preferring risky assets; Eastern and Western households have the highest degree of preference for risky assets, followed by central and Western households the lowest. (3) Empirical analysis results show that household income. Income, social capital and education can effectively promote family participation in the financial market, and increase the breadth and depth of participation of risk assets. (4) There is obvious age effect and housing crowding-out effect in household financial asset selection behavior. With the growth of age, risk investment presents an inverted "U" shape, and the age effect is obvious. The proportion of real estate has a significant negative impact on the participation and depth of household risky assets, indicating that real estate investment will crowd out financial assets investment. Due to the substitution effect of real estate, "stock economy" deviates, expectation deviation and hysteresis exist, optimistic economic expectation will reduce the investment of household financial assets, which indicates that stock market deviation in macro-market is transmitted to household asset selection behavior in micro-market. Development and put forward relevant suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：西南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832.2

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