天津市能源消费与经济增长的关系研究
发布时间：2018-10-21 08:26
【摘要】：能源一直以来都是整个社会前进与发展的物质基础,经济的快速发展更是需要能源作为主要支撑点。随着社会的不断进步和经济的不断发展,能源消费需求快速增加的问题也随之产生,例如:能源消费总量大、利用效率低、不可再生资源储存量逐渐减少以及由于能源的不合理消费导致的环境污染问题。在近几年的发展过程中这些问题逐渐引起了人们的关注。天津市的能源消费一直是以煤炭、石油等为主要消费方式,而太阳能、风能等一些清洁能源的使用占比比较低。天津市作为"一带一路"和"京津冀协同发展"战略的重要组成部分,其经济发展方向一直备受关注。如何使天津市的经济、能源、环境协调发展是目前天津市经济发展过程中的一个重要研究方向。因此需要对天津市的能源消费与增长的关系进行研究,并对能源消费的一些影响因素进行分析,进而达到为天津市的经济发展与能源消费提出一些可行性建议的目的。首先为了对天津市目前的经济发展和能源消费现状进行了解,本文对1990-2014年的经济发展和能源消费的数据进行了描述统计。然后在对能源消费、经济增长建立经济模型的基础之上,采用了协整检验、格兰杰因果关系以及脉冲响应分析的计量经济分析方法对两者的关系进行研究。最后又对能源强度和能源消费总量按照不同的影响因素进行因素分解。研究结果最终发现,天津市的能源消费和经济增长数据通过了协整检验,即表明两者存在某种长期均衡关系,但是格兰杰因果检验却显示两者之间并没有存在明显的格兰杰因果关系。在对天津市能源消费强度后,得出的结论是:天津市的能源强度受到技术进步因素的影响作用比较大,受产业结构调整的影响程度则比较小;同理在对能源消费总量因素分解时发现,总产出是影响消费总量的最主要因素,其次是技术进步因素,再其次是产业结构变化的影响。同时在对2005-2014年的数据进行分析得出,天津市在近十年的发展的过程中,通过优化产业结构和提高科技水平等相关方面措施,能源强度和消费总量都得到了较好的改善,节能减排工作取得了阶段性的成果。最后,根据本文的研究结果,从产业结构调整和技术进步两个方面给出了一些针对能源消费方面的一些可行性措施。
[Abstract]:Energy has always been the material foundation for the whole society to advance and develop, and the rapid development of economy needs energy as the main supporting point. With the continuous progress of society and the development of economy, the problem of rapid increase of energy consumption demand also arises, for example: the total amount of energy consumption is large, the utilization efficiency is low, The storage of non-renewable resources is decreasing gradually and the environmental pollution caused by unreasonable consumption of energy. In the process of development in recent years, these problems have gradually attracted people's attention. Tianjin's energy consumption has been coal, oil as the main consumption mode, while solar, wind energy and other clean energy use is relatively low. As an important part of the strategy of "Belt and Road" and "Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei coordinated development", Tianjin's economic development direction has been paid close attention to. How to make Tianjin's economy, energy and environment develop harmoniously is an important research direction in the process of Tianjin's economic development. Therefore, it is necessary to study the relationship between energy consumption and growth in Tianjin, and to analyze some influencing factors of energy consumption, and then put forward some feasible suggestions for Tianjin's economic development and energy consumption. In order to understand the current economic development and energy consumption in Tianjin, this paper describes the data of economic development and energy consumption from 1990 to 2014. Then, based on the economic model of energy consumption and economic growth, the relationship between them is studied by using co-integration test, Granger causality and impulse response analysis. Finally, the energy intensity and total energy consumption are decomposed according to different factors. Finally, it is found that the data of energy consumption and economic growth in Tianjin have passed the cointegration test, that is to say, there is a certain long-term equilibrium relationship between the two. But the Granger causality test shows that there is no obvious Granger causality between the two. After analyzing the intensity of energy consumption in Tianjin, the following conclusions are drawn: the energy intensity of Tianjin is greatly influenced by the factors of technological progress, and the influence of industrial structure adjustment is relatively small; When decomposing the factors of total energy consumption, it is found that the total output is the most important factor affecting the total consumption, followed by technological progress, and then the influence of the change of industrial structure. At the same time, through the analysis of the data from 2005 to 2014, it is concluded that the energy intensity and the total consumption of Tianjin have been improved better by optimizing the industrial structure and raising the level of science and technology during the past ten years of development. Energy conservation and emission reduction work has achieved periodic results. Finally, according to the research results of this paper, some feasible measures for energy consumption are given from two aspects: industrial structure adjustment and technological progress.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F426.2;F127
[Abstract]:Energy has always been the material foundation for the whole society to advance and develop, and the rapid development of economy needs energy as the main supporting point. With the continuous progress of society and the development of economy, the problem of rapid increase of energy consumption demand also arises, for example: the total amount of energy consumption is large, the utilization efficiency is low, The storage of non-renewable resources is decreasing gradually and the environmental pollution caused by unreasonable consumption of energy. In the process of development in recent years, these problems have gradually attracted people's attention. Tianjin's energy consumption has been coal, oil as the main consumption mode, while solar, wind energy and other clean energy use is relatively low. As an important part of the strategy of "Belt and Road" and "Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei coordinated development", Tianjin's economic development direction has been paid close attention to. How to make Tianjin's economy, energy and environment develop harmoniously is an important research direction in the process of Tianjin's economic development. Therefore, it is necessary to study the relationship between energy consumption and growth in Tianjin, and to analyze some influencing factors of energy consumption, and then put forward some feasible suggestions for Tianjin's economic development and energy consumption. In order to understand the current economic development and energy consumption in Tianjin, this paper describes the data of economic development and energy consumption from 1990 to 2014. Then, based on the economic model of energy consumption and economic growth, the relationship between them is studied by using co-integration test, Granger causality and impulse response analysis. Finally, the energy intensity and total energy consumption are decomposed according to different factors. Finally, it is found that the data of energy consumption and economic growth in Tianjin have passed the cointegration test, that is to say, there is a certain long-term equilibrium relationship between the two. But the Granger causality test shows that there is no obvious Granger causality between the two. After analyzing the intensity of energy consumption in Tianjin, the following conclusions are drawn: the energy intensity of Tianjin is greatly influenced by the factors of technological progress, and the influence of industrial structure adjustment is relatively small; When decomposing the factors of total energy consumption, it is found that the total output is the most important factor affecting the total consumption, followed by technological progress, and then the influence of the change of industrial structure. At the same time, through the analysis of the data from 2005 to 2014, it is concluded that the energy intensity and the total consumption of Tianjin have been improved better by optimizing the industrial structure and raising the level of science and technology during the past ten years of development. Energy conservation and emission reduction work has achieved periodic results. Finally, according to the research results of this paper, some feasible measures for energy consumption are given from two aspects: industrial structure adjustment and technological progress.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F426.2;F127
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