技术进步、全要素生产率与中国出口结构

发布时间：2019-03-09 10:53

【摘要】：全球化日益繁荣,我国外贸规模快速扩大,出口结构也不断变化。在国际贸易理论的发展过程中,技术进步对出口贸易的影响作用受到越来越多的关注。波斯纳的技术差距理论引入技术这一生产要素,认为技术能促进土地、劳动和资本等全部要素生产率的提高,进而影响一国贸易。因此,本文试图在上述理论的基础上建立数理模型,将全要素生产率这一因素考虑进去,以此来探究技术进步与中国出口结构的关系,分析技术进步通过全要素生产率对出口结构的影响作用,并以此研究结果对优化中国出口结构提出政策建议。本文首先就全要素生产率、技术进步与出口结构的文献进行综述,分析学术界的研究思路。其次,通过相关理论分析技术进步、全要素生产率和出口结构的关系机制,并为下文的实证研究提供理论基础其次。然后,本文通过中国创新指数、技术进步投入与产出及技术进步对经济增长的影响三个方面对中国技术进步现状进行分析,说明中国技术进步水平一直在提高;并对中国出口结构的演进进行分析,指出中国出口结构的发展状况。最后,在相关理论和描述性分析的基础上,采用实证方法分析技术进步与中国出口结构的关系。通过对全要素生产率的测算和分解,发现技术进步是促进全要素生产率提高的驱动力,随后通过构建全要素生产率与出口结构的计量模型,分析全要素生产率对中国出口结构的影响,实证结果显示全要素生产率是促进中国出口结构优化的关键,所以通过上述两次实证分析可知技术进步是优化中国出口结构的根源。最后,文章在上述描述性分析与实证分析基础上,从技术进步的角度为持续调整及优化中国出口结构提出建议。
[Abstract]:Globalization is flourishing day by day, the scale of China's foreign trade is expanding rapidly, and the export structure is also constantly changing. In the development of international trade theory, more and more attention has been paid to the influence of technological progress on export trade. Posner's theory of technology gap introduced technology as a factor of production, and thought that technology could promote the improvement of all factor productivity such as land, labor and capital, and then affect the trade of a country. Therefore, this paper attempts to establish a mathematical model on the basis of the above-mentioned theory, taking the factor of total factor productivity into account, so as to explore the relationship between technological progress and China's export structure. This paper analyzes the effect of technological progress on export structure through total factor productivity, and puts forward some policy suggestions for optimizing China's export structure. Firstly, this paper reviews the literature on total factor productivity, technological progress and export structure, and analyzes the research ideas of academia. Secondly, it analyzes the relationship mechanism of technological progress, total factor productivity and export structure through the relevant theories, and provides the theoretical basis for the following empirical research. Then, this paper analyzes the present situation of China's technological progress from three aspects: innovation index, input and output of technological progress, and the influence of technological progress on economic growth, which shows that the level of technological progress in China has been improving all the time. And analyzes the evolution of China's export structure, points out the development of China's export structure. Finally, based on the relevant theory and descriptive analysis, the relationship between technological progress and China's export structure is analyzed by empirical method. By measuring and decomposing TFP, it is found that technological progress is the driving force to promote TFP, and then the econometric model of TFP and export structure is constructed. By analyzing the influence of TFP on China's export structure, the empirical results show that TFP is the key to promote the optimization of China's export structure. Therefore, through the above two empirical analyses, we know that technological progress is the root of optimizing China's export structure. Finally, based on the above descriptive analysis and empirical analysis, the paper puts forward some suggestions for continuous adjustment and optimization of China's export structure from the point of view of technological progress.
【学位授予单位】：西北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.62

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