白俄罗斯能源消费与经济增长的关系研究

发布时间：2019-07-07 19:39

【摘要】：实现经济增长是每一个国家的发展目标之一,许多环境和能源经济学领域的专家非常热衷于研究能源消费和经济增长之间的关系,因此两者之间的关系研究也是一个国家确定发展方向和制定政策方针的重要依据。就本文的研究背景而言,一方面,白俄罗斯是一个能源进口型国家,所以其发展必然会受到能源供应国的制约;另一方面,白俄罗斯国内市场十分有限,其经济发展的对外依存度很高。随着白俄罗斯的两大能源供应国乌克兰、俄罗斯先后宣布停止向白俄罗斯输出天然气能源,这使得白俄罗斯不得不提升自身的能源自给能力。而且据世界银行数据显示,2015年白俄罗斯经济首次出现负增长,失业进一步加剧。由于能源是一个国家经济发展,特别是工业发展的重要支撑,所以在此框架和背景下研究能源消费与经济增长之间的关系对于保障白俄罗斯的能源安全和经济的持续高速发展以及制定相关的经济政策和能源政策具有重要的现实意义。本文主要选取白俄罗斯1992年-2011年的能源消费和经济增长数据,并运用协整理论、Granger因果关系检验和误差修正模型等计量经济学方法,实证研究了白俄罗斯能源消费和经济增长之间的协整和因果关系。实证研究结果表明,尽管白俄罗斯能源消费与GDP之间存在着短期波动关系,但是从长期来看,两者之间存在着稳定的均衡关系,并且存在着双向的因果关系,但是能源消费对经济增长的影响更加显著,即能源消费在经济增长中仍有较大的贡献作用。因此在能源供给不足的国情下,进一步优化节能政策,调整和优化能源结构,以及加快引进国外投资和先进的再生能源开发技术对白俄罗斯显得十分重要。随着国际能源的枯竭和国际气候大会的召开,对可再生能源的勘探和利用已经逐渐成为大多数国家的共识,并逐渐形成一定的能源交易市场。对于本国而言,可再生能源的研发和利用属于白俄罗斯共和国节能、提升能源效率和保障能源安全领域重要的议题,是环境保护和防止气候变化的国家政策的重要组成部分。将可再生能源引入国家燃料能源差额系统的工作得到了白俄罗斯各级政府、组织和企业的大力支持。本文第四部分对白俄罗斯可再生能源开发利用的前景和政策优势进行探讨和综述,本文对于能源消费与经济增长关系的研究对改善白俄罗斯的国际能源地位具有重要的现实意义。文章最后一部分基于实证分析的结果,并对白俄罗斯在能源发展方面给出了相关的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Achieving economic growth is one of the development goals of every country. Many experts in the field of environment and energy economics are very keen to study the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, so the study of the relationship between the two is also an important basis for a country to determine the direction of development and formulate policy guidelines. As far as the research background of this paper is concerned, on the one hand, Belarus is an energy importing country, so its development is bound to be restricted by energy suppliers; on the other hand, the domestic market of Belarus is very limited, and its economic development is highly dependent on foreign countries. With Ukraine, two of Belarus's biggest energy suppliers, Russia has announced that it will stop exporting natural gas to Belarus, forcing Belarus to boost its energy self-sufficiency. And according to World Bank data, Belarus's economy experienced negative growth for the first time in 2015, and unemployment intensified. Because energy is an important support for a country's economic development, especially industrial development, it is of great practical significance to study the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in this framework and background for ensuring energy security and sustained and rapid economic development in Belarus, as well as formulating related economic policies and energy policies. This paper mainly selects the energy consumption and economic growth data of Belarus from 1992 to 2011, and empirically studies the co-integration and causality between energy consumption and economic growth in Belarus by using econometric methods such as cointegration theory, Granger causality test and error correction model. The empirical results show that although there is a short-term fluctuation relationship between energy consumption and GDP in Belarus, but in the long run, there is a stable equilibrium relationship between the two, and there is a two-way causality, but the impact of energy consumption on economic growth is more significant, that is, energy consumption still plays a greater role in economic growth. Therefore, under the condition of insufficient energy supply, it is very important for Belarus to further optimize the energy saving policy, adjust and optimize the energy structure, and speed up the introduction of foreign investment and advanced renewable energy development technology. With the depletion of international energy and the convening of international climate conference, the exploration and utilization of renewable energy has gradually become the consensus of most countries, and gradually formed a certain energy trading market. For our country, the research and development and utilization of renewable energy is an important issue in the field of energy conservation, energy efficiency and energy security in the Republic of Belarus, and is an important part of the national policy of environmental protection and prevention of climate change. The introduction of renewable energy into the national fuel energy balance system has been strongly supported by Belarusian governments, organizations and enterprises at all levels. In the fourth part of this paper, the prospect and policy advantages of renewable energy development and utilization in Belarus are discussed and reviewed. the study of the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is of great practical significance to improve the international energy status of Belarus. The last part of the article is based on the results of empirical analysis, and gives relevant policy recommendations on energy development in Belarus.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F151.2;F451.2

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