公共部门就业对宏观经济稳定的影响——基于搜索匹配模型的DSGE模拟与预测

发布时间：2018-02-17 03:21

本文关键词： 公共部门就业搜索匹配模型动态随机一般均衡　出处：《中国工业经济》2016年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：长期以来,中国公共部门就业具有明显的脱离市场的非周期性特征,规模和工资水平均对经济波动响应程度不高。搜索匹配模型基础上的DSGE模拟结果显示,这种就业刚性将扩大宏观经济的周期性波动。现实中,公共部门工资相对于企业的低弹性造成了劳动者对未来公共部门就业价值的稳定预期,进而提高了当前失业状态的价值。一方面,这使得求职者自愿维持失业,减少对企业的劳动力供给;另一方面,维护了劳动者与企业协商工资的能力,增强了企业工资粘性,破坏了价格调节机制对就业的内在稳定作用。公共部门就业情景预测说明,在经济遭受负面冲击时,顺应经济周期调整公共部门工资能够降低企业减薪的障碍,提高企业在经济下行时期创造新增就业的积极性,减少失业率上升幅度和持续时间。如果维持公共部门工资的非周期性,即使扩大公共部门就业规模,也很难阻止失业率持续走高和经济状况持续恶化。本研究脱离行政、体制、社会等因素,从客观视角对中国公共部门就业的经济影响作初步探索,其结论也为饱受争议的中国公务员薪酬调整提供了一定的理论启示,论证了完善机关事业单位工资正常增长制度、提高公务员基本工资标准市场弹性的经济意义。
[Abstract]:For a long time, the non periodic characteristics of Chinese public sector employment has obvious out of the market, and the scale of wages are not high degree of response to economic fluctuations. The search matching model based on DSGE simulation results show that the employment rigidity will expand the macroeconomic fluctuation. In reality, the public sector wages relative to the low elasticity of enterprises the result of the employment value of public sector workers in the future is expected to stabilize, and then improve the current state of unemployment value. On the one hand, this allows job seekers to maintain voluntary unemployment, reduce the labor supply of enterprises; on the other hand, maintain the ability to wage negotiations of workers and enterprises, enhance the enterprise wage stickiness, destroyed the price the regulation mechanism of intrinsic stabilizing effect on employment. The employment situation of public sector forecast shows that in the economy suffered a negative impact, to adjust the public economic cycle Sector wages can reduce the wage cuts barriers, improve the enterprise enthusiasm to create new jobs in the economic downturn, the unemployment rate rose to reduce the amplitude and duration. If the public sector to maintain non cyclical wages, even enlarge the scale of employment of public sector, it is difficult to prevent the unemployment rate continued to rise and the economic situation continued to deteriorate. Research from the administrative system, social and other factors, makes a preliminary exploration from the perspective of the economic impact of objective Chinese public sector employment, the conclusion also provides some theoretical inspirations for the controversial Chinese civil servants salary adjustment, demonstrates a perfect institutions salary growth system, improve the basic wage of civil servants market elasticity economic significance.

【作者单位】：上海社会科学院经济研究所;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国特色公共经济理论与政策研究”(批准号11&ZD073) 中国博士后基金项目“公共财政结构、居民收入与经济增长质量”(批准号2012M520788)
【分类号】：F249.2;F124

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