基于ARIMA模型的广州市生态足迹动态变化过程

发布时间：2018-04-18 23:25

本文选题：生态足迹 + ARIMA模型　；参考：《华南师范大学学报(自然科学版)》2017年04期

【摘要】：为了解广州市生态可持续问题,运用生态足迹模型对广州市2003—2013年的人均生态承载力和人均生态足迹进行了模拟和分析,在此基础上运用ARIMA模型预测了2014—2020年的生态足迹变化趋势.结果表明:2003—2013年人均生态足迹呈上升趋势,增幅达到6.7%,人均生态承载力呈下降趋势,人均生态承载力远远小于人均生态足迹,导致生态赤字状态,广州市处于严重不可持续发展状态;2014—2020年人均生态足迹呈上升趋势,2020年达到4.201 hm~2/人,是2013年的1.02倍,人均生态承载力基本保持不变,人均生态赤字不断增大.针对广州市严重不可持续发展的现状,提出加大环境生态保护力度、控制人口规模、优化产业结构和转变经济发展方式等实现广州市可持续发展的建议.
[Abstract]:In order to understand the ecological sustainability in Guangzhou, the ecological carrying capacity per capita and ecological footprint per capita in Guangzhou from 2003 to 2013 were simulated and analyzed by ecological footprint model.On the basis of this, ARIMA model is used to predict the trend of ecological footprint change in 2014-2020.The results showed that the per capita ecological footprint of the population increased to 6.7 from 2003 to 2013, the per capita ecological carrying capacity decreased, and the per capita ecological carrying capacity was much smaller than the per capita ecological footprint, which led to the ecological deficit.The per capita ecological footprint of Guangzhou in 2014-2020 is on the rise, reaching 4.201 hm~2/ in 2020, which is 1.02 times of that in 2013. The per capita ecological carrying capacity remains basically unchanged, and the per capita ecological deficit is increasing.In view of the present situation of serious unsustainable development in Guangzhou, some suggestions are put forward to realize the sustainable development of Guangzhou, such as increasing the environmental ecological protection, controlling the population scale, optimizing the industrial structure and changing the mode of economic development.
【作者单位】：华南师范大学地理科学学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41271060)
【分类号】：X22

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