从结构转型到统一增长

发布时间：2018-05-19 16:17

本文选题：增长理论 + 单部门模型　；参考：《贵州社会科学》2017年04期

【摘要】：发展理论认为结构转型导致了增长,增长理论认为增长带来了结构转型,理论的冲突源自于分析框架不同。新增长理论中单部门增长模型借鉴了发展理论两种技术两种生产方式的假定,从而模型中关于技术选择的问题在本质上等同于结构转型但无法在形式上讨论;多部门增长模型更进一步讨论了结构转型的三种动力,试图整合发展理论,但是依旧无法模型化从马尔萨斯陷阱向平衡增长阶段的跨越。统一增长理论借鉴了演化经济学的方法构建了能够完整描述经济从马尔萨斯陷阱到平衡增长的全过程,但在结构转型的处理上又向新增长理论的方法论回归,虽然在融合增长理论和发展理论上迈出了重要的步伐,但是在方法论和模型设定上存在着无法与新增长理论融合的问题。新的理论研究要求构建能够整合长期增长、结构转型、人口转型、驼峰型增长的统一增长模型。
[Abstract]:The theory of development holds that structural transformation leads to growth, and growth theory thinks that growth brings about structural transformation. The conflict of theory comes from the difference of analytical framework. In the new growth theory, the single-sector growth model draws lessons from the hypothesis of two kinds of technology and two modes of production in the theory of development, so the problem of technological choice in the model is essentially equivalent to structural transformation but can not be discussed in form. The multi-sector growth model further discusses the three driving forces of structural transformation and attempts to integrate the theory of development, but it is still unable to model the transition from the Malthus trap to the stage of balanced growth. The unified growth theory draws lessons from the method of evolutionary economics to construct the whole process of describing the economy from Malthus trap to balanced growth, but it returns to the methodology of new growth theory in the process of structural transformation. Although important steps have been taken in the integration of growth theory and development theory, there are problems in methodology and model setting that cannot be integrated with the new growth theory. The new theoretical research requires the establishment of a unified growth model that can integrate long-term growth, structural transformation, population transformation, and hump growth.
【作者单位】：中央财经大学;
【分类号】：F061.2

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