虚拟经济发展与经济增长关系研究
发布时间：2018-09-14 10:47
【摘要】： 20世纪90年代以来随着金融业,房地产业的不断发展,各国的虚拟经济成分日趋扩大,经济虚拟化进程加快,虚拟经济的健康发展对国家经济安全的稳定作用越来越大。实体经济的发展,经济机制运行效率的提高,均与虚拟经济的扩张发展密切相关。合理健康的虚拟经济发展会对实体经济产生有利的影响,起到“润滑剂”的作用,但虚拟经济过度膨胀又会引致泡沫经济,损害社会经济的发展。如何防止虚拟经济过度膨胀引致泡沫经济、金融危机已成为经济学界的热点。 本文的选题正是基于上述的问题的思考,所要研究的核心问题是虚拟经济发展与经济增长之间的关系。受时间和资料的限制,本文主要讨论以下几个问题:①什么是虚拟经济以及中国虚拟经济与实体经济是否协调发展;②虚拟经济发展对经济增长如何产生影响,影响的程度有多大;③中国虚拟经济发展与经济增长协调发展的对策是什么。 本文在研究过程中,主要采用理论分析和实证检验相结合、定性分析与定量分析相结合的研究方法。研究的主要结论为: ①中国目前所提出的虚拟经济是在马克思的“虚拟资本”的角度提出的,它是指在经济金融全球化的环境下,以现代信用制度为依据,以金融系统为主要依托,虚拟资本进行循环运动而形成的一种相对独立的经济活动。但是虚拟经济又与金融和泡沫经济有着很大的区别。本文采用生态学中的耦合度分析法对1991年到2005年我国虚拟经济与实体经济的协调度进行了分析。结果显示:1991年到1993年耦合度是下降的;1994年到1997年耦合度呈平稳的上升趋势;从1998年到2000年耦合度又一直处于缓慢的下降阶段;2001年到2003年耦合度下降的幅度降低了;2004年以后的耦合度突然下降。最后对这种变化趋势进行了理论分析。 ②虚拟经济发展对经济总量的作用机制主要是股市的财富效应和资本市场的帕加洛模型。分析表明:我国股市存在微弱的正财富效应;储蓄率、储蓄-投资转化率及资本边际生产率构成了我国经济增长的决定因素,影响这三个变量的任何因素都将影响经济增长。 ③虚拟经济发展对经济结构的作用机制是从虚拟经济对金融结构、产业结构和所有制结构这三个层面来分析的。结果表明:我国目前的金融结构是以银行为主导以市场为辅助的金融结构,随着虚拟经济的不断发展,我国股票市场、债券市场的不断完善,以市场为主导的金融结构将是我国金融结构的发展和改革趋势。虚拟经济与所有制结构的变化是互为因果关系的,与产业结构是单向的因果的关系,产业结构的升级需要与一定的金融发展水平相配套。要使虚拟经济发展和经济结构变化的步调是协调一致的,就要从多个方面共同发展,因为任何一个方面如果发展不起来,就会制约其他经济方面的发展。 ④虚拟经济与经济增长协调发展应从3个方面着手:首先,积极推进虚拟经济与实体经济的高层次结合;其次,提高虚拟经济发展对经济总量的贡献性和对经济结构升级的促进作用;最后,在经济金融全球化的情况下,我国要正确分析经济金融全球化给我国资本市场带来的利弊,并且要制定合理的发展策略。
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s, with the continuous development of financial industry and real estate industry, the composition of virtual economy has been enlarged day by day, the process of economic virtualization has been accelerated, and the healthy development of virtual economy has played a more and more important role in the stability of national economic security. Reasonable and healthy development of fictitious economy will have a favorable impact on real economy and play the role of "lubricant", but excessive expansion of fictitious economy will lead to bubble economy and damage the development of social economy.
This paper is based on the above-mentioned issues of thinking, the core of the study is the relationship between virtual economic development and economic growth. Restricted by time and information, this paper mainly discusses the following issues: what is the virtual economy and China's virtual economy and real economy is coordinated development; How and to what extent does it affect economic growth? What are the Countermeasures for the coordinated development of China's fictitious economic development and economic growth?
In the course of the research, this paper mainly adopts the method of combining theoretical analysis with empirical test, and combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis.
(1) The fictitious economy put forward by China at present is put forward from the angle of Marx's "fictitious capital". It refers to a relatively independent economic activity under the environment of economic and financial globalization, based on the modern credit system, with the financial system as the main support and the fictitious capital circulating. It is quite different from finance and bubble economy. This paper analyzes the coordination degree between fictitious economy and real economy in China from 1991 to 2005 by coupling degree analysis in ecology. The results show that the coupling degree decreases from 1991 to 1993; the coupling degree increases steadily from 1994 to 1997; and the coupling degree increases from 1998 to 2000. The degree of coupling declined slowly from 2001 to 2003. The degree of coupling declined abruptly after 2004. Finally, the trend was analyzed theoretically.
The analysis shows that there is a weak positive wealth effect in China's stock market, and that the savings rate, the savings-investment conversion rate and the marginal capital productivity constitute the determinants of China's economic growth, and they are the three variables. Any factor will affect economic growth.
The results show that the current financial structure in China is a financial structure dominated by banks and supplemented by the market. With the continuous development of the virtual economy, China's stock market, bonds and so on. With the continuous improvement of the market, the development and reform of China's financial structure will be dominated by the market. The changes of the virtual economy and ownership structure are mutually causal, and the industrial structure is one-way causal. The upgrading of the industrial structure needs to be matched with a certain level of financial development. The pace of development and economic structural change is coordinated and should be developed in many ways, because if any one aspect can not be developed, it will restrict the development of other economic aspects.
(4) The coordinated development of fictitious economy and economic growth should start from three aspects: firstly, actively promoting the high-level combination of fictitious economy and real economy; secondly, improving the contribution of fictitious economy to the total economic volume and promoting the upgrading of economic structure; finally, in the context of economic and financial globalization, China should correctly analyze the economy. The advantages and disadvantages brought by financial globalization to China's capital market and the rational development strategy should be formulated.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2008
【分类号】：F224;F49;F061.2
本文编号：2242485
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s, with the continuous development of financial industry and real estate industry, the composition of virtual economy has been enlarged day by day, the process of economic virtualization has been accelerated, and the healthy development of virtual economy has played a more and more important role in the stability of national economic security. Reasonable and healthy development of fictitious economy will have a favorable impact on real economy and play the role of "lubricant", but excessive expansion of fictitious economy will lead to bubble economy and damage the development of social economy.
This paper is based on the above-mentioned issues of thinking, the core of the study is the relationship between virtual economic development and economic growth. Restricted by time and information, this paper mainly discusses the following issues: what is the virtual economy and China's virtual economy and real economy is coordinated development; How and to what extent does it affect economic growth? What are the Countermeasures for the coordinated development of China's fictitious economic development and economic growth?
In the course of the research, this paper mainly adopts the method of combining theoretical analysis with empirical test, and combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis.
(1) The fictitious economy put forward by China at present is put forward from the angle of Marx's "fictitious capital". It refers to a relatively independent economic activity under the environment of economic and financial globalization, based on the modern credit system, with the financial system as the main support and the fictitious capital circulating. It is quite different from finance and bubble economy. This paper analyzes the coordination degree between fictitious economy and real economy in China from 1991 to 2005 by coupling degree analysis in ecology. The results show that the coupling degree decreases from 1991 to 1993; the coupling degree increases steadily from 1994 to 1997; and the coupling degree increases from 1998 to 2000. The degree of coupling declined slowly from 2001 to 2003. The degree of coupling declined abruptly after 2004. Finally, the trend was analyzed theoretically.
The analysis shows that there is a weak positive wealth effect in China's stock market, and that the savings rate, the savings-investment conversion rate and the marginal capital productivity constitute the determinants of China's economic growth, and they are the three variables. Any factor will affect economic growth.
The results show that the current financial structure in China is a financial structure dominated by banks and supplemented by the market. With the continuous development of the virtual economy, China's stock market, bonds and so on. With the continuous improvement of the market, the development and reform of China's financial structure will be dominated by the market. The changes of the virtual economy and ownership structure are mutually causal, and the industrial structure is one-way causal. The upgrading of the industrial structure needs to be matched with a certain level of financial development. The pace of development and economic structural change is coordinated and should be developed in many ways, because if any one aspect can not be developed, it will restrict the development of other economic aspects.
(4) The coordinated development of fictitious economy and economic growth should start from three aspects: firstly, actively promoting the high-level combination of fictitious economy and real economy; secondly, improving the contribution of fictitious economy to the total economic volume and promoting the upgrading of economic structure; finally, in the context of economic and financial globalization, China should correctly analyze the economy. The advantages and disadvantages brought by financial globalization to China's capital market and the rational development strategy should be formulated.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2008
【分类号】：F224;F49;F061.2
【引证文献】
相关期刊论文 前1条
1 杨运星;;论虚拟经济的稳定性、系统风险与经济安全[J];商业时代;2013年24期
，本文编号：2242485
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