制度变迁对长期经济绩效的影响机制：理论、模型及应用
发布时间：2018-09-18 21:41
【摘要】： 经济增长实绩对一国人民的生活水平影响重大。主流增长理论忽视了对制度 因素的研究；而增长的制度论者又缺乏严密的数理演绎。本研对这种增长理论与 制度因素事实上的相互割裂进行尝试性弥补。由于中国改革后的高速增长明显与 制度转型相联系，这项工作也具有可预期的现实意义。 从基本涵义界定出发，将制度及制度变迁纳入数学抽象，从模型工具上沟通 了制度变迁与经济增长的联系。考察了制度生产性功能及其实施机制；讨论了制 度变迁的定义、来源和过程，首次提出中性、劳动增进型及资本增进型制度变迁 的性质划分；基于演进和设计，区分了两类制度及制度变迁，分别给出了相应的 制度积累方程，并据此得到了社会总制度积累方程。 从代表性家庭和企业的竞争性均衡入手，结合制度积累方程，运用连续时域 动态最优化方法，构造了一类基于制度变迁的最优增长模型。考察了模型的稳态 特征、增长率决定因素、比较静态性质、转移动态行为、鞍点稳定性、收敛特征、 收敛速度等基本性态，得出了有意义的结论。相位图技术揭示了转移行为和鞍点 路径的完整形态。模型显示，经济体系不断积累的制度存量是驱动增长的重要动 因：不仅对增长具有水平效应和增长效应，而且对转移进程的收敛速率产生重要 影响。为考察强制型变迁消失的后果，将最优增长模型作了拓展，分析了诱致型 变迁达到其诱致因子边界值时的情形，得到了一个基于制度变迁的拓展增长模型。 拓展后的模型显示，得益于制度外溢，社会水平上的递减报酬被避免；只要诱致 型变迁效果足够好，即使没有强制型变迁，经济依然可维持长期增长；为使制度 外溢内部化，需考虑具有帕累托改进的补偿。 通过对转轨国家和东亚地区增长实践的考察，区分了“好”或“坏”的制度 变迁。澄清了与促成有效率制度变迁相关的若干问题，包括判断制度绩效的标准， 与制度变迁相关的协调成本，制度变迁无效率的定义、性质与来源，以及制度变 迁中的囚徒困境、路径依赖与委托－代理问题。运用良治框架，从十个方面提出 了促进增长的公共政策。 中国的改革实践为模型提供了自然试验。依据主成分法构造了描述制度积累 的市场化指数；估计了两类制度变迁时序数据；利用相关分析、因果分析和回归 模型探究了制度与增长的实证关系。结果显示，制度变迁是增长的重要动力，其 贡献仅次于有形资本；而TFP 经由制度与人力资本因素也可完全解释。实证结果 与理论预测相吻合，证实了本研正规模型的正确性与解释力。最后并就促进增长 的制度转型提出了建议。
[Abstract]:The performance of economic growth has a great impact on the living standard of a country. Mainstream growth theory ignores the system.
The study of factors; and the institutional theorists of growth lack rigorous mathematical deduction.
Institutional factors are in fact trying to make up for each other's fragmentation.
The transformation of the system is linked, and this work is of practical significance.
Starting from the definition of basic meaning, the system and institutional change are included in mathematical abstraction, and communication from model tools.
The relationship between institutional change and economic growth is discussed. The productive function of institution and its implementation mechanism are examined.
The definition, source and process of degree change, for the first time, put forward neutral, labor enhancement and capital raising institutional changes.
Based on Evolution and design, two types of institutional and institutional changes are distinguished, and corresponding ones are given respectively
The accumulation equation of the system is obtained, and the accumulation equation of the total social system is obtained accordingly.
Starting from the competitive equilibrium of representative families and enterprises, combined with the system accumulation equation, the continuous time domain is applied.
Dynamic optimization method is used to construct an optimal growth model based on institutional change.
Characteristics, growth rate determinants, comparative static properties, transfer dynamic behavior, saddle point stability, convergence characteristics,
The phase diagram technique reveals the transfer behavior and saddle point.
The model shows that the accumulated institutional stock of the economic system is an important driver of growth.
Cause: It not only has horizontal and growth effects on growth, but also plays an important role in the convergence rate of the transfer process.
In order to investigate the consequences of the disappearance of coercive changes, the optimal growth model is extended and the induced type is analyzed.
When the transition reaches the boundary value of its inducer, an extended growth model based on institutional change is obtained.
The extended model shows that, benefiting from institutional spillovers, diminishing returns at the social level are avoided as long as they are induced.
The effect of the type of change is good enough to maintain long-term economic growth even without mandatory change; in order to make the system work
The internalization of spillovers needs to be compensated with Pareto improvement.
By reviewing the growth practice of transitional countries and East Asian regions, the system of "good" or "bad" is distinguished.
Change. Clarifies a number of issues related to facilitating efficient institutional change, including criteria for judging institutional performance.
The definition of coordination cost, institutional change inefficiency, nature and source, and institutional change are related to institutional change.
The prisoner's dilemma, path dependence and principal-agent problem in moving to the middle are put forward from ten aspects.
A public policy to promote growth.
China's reform practice provides a natural experiment for the model.
Marketization index; estimating time series data of two types of institutional change; using correlation analysis, causality analysis and regression
The model explores the empirical relationship between institution and growth. The results show that institutional change is an important driving force for growth.
Contribution is second only to tangible capital, and TFP can be fully explained by institutional and human capital factors.
The correctness and explanatory power of the formal model are confirmed by the agreement with the theoretical prediction. Finally, the growth is promoted.
Some suggestions are put forward for institutional transformation.
【学位授予单位】：清华大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2002
【分类号】：F061.2
本文编号：2249165
[Abstract]:The performance of economic growth has a great impact on the living standard of a country. Mainstream growth theory ignores the system.
The study of factors; and the institutional theorists of growth lack rigorous mathematical deduction.
Institutional factors are in fact trying to make up for each other's fragmentation.
The transformation of the system is linked, and this work is of practical significance.
Starting from the definition of basic meaning, the system and institutional change are included in mathematical abstraction, and communication from model tools.
The relationship between institutional change and economic growth is discussed. The productive function of institution and its implementation mechanism are examined.
The definition, source and process of degree change, for the first time, put forward neutral, labor enhancement and capital raising institutional changes.
Based on Evolution and design, two types of institutional and institutional changes are distinguished, and corresponding ones are given respectively
The accumulation equation of the system is obtained, and the accumulation equation of the total social system is obtained accordingly.
Starting from the competitive equilibrium of representative families and enterprises, combined with the system accumulation equation, the continuous time domain is applied.
Dynamic optimization method is used to construct an optimal growth model based on institutional change.
Characteristics, growth rate determinants, comparative static properties, transfer dynamic behavior, saddle point stability, convergence characteristics,
The phase diagram technique reveals the transfer behavior and saddle point.
The model shows that the accumulated institutional stock of the economic system is an important driver of growth.
Cause: It not only has horizontal and growth effects on growth, but also plays an important role in the convergence rate of the transfer process.
In order to investigate the consequences of the disappearance of coercive changes, the optimal growth model is extended and the induced type is analyzed.
When the transition reaches the boundary value of its inducer, an extended growth model based on institutional change is obtained.
The extended model shows that, benefiting from institutional spillovers, diminishing returns at the social level are avoided as long as they are induced.
The effect of the type of change is good enough to maintain long-term economic growth even without mandatory change; in order to make the system work
The internalization of spillovers needs to be compensated with Pareto improvement.
By reviewing the growth practice of transitional countries and East Asian regions, the system of "good" or "bad" is distinguished.
Change. Clarifies a number of issues related to facilitating efficient institutional change, including criteria for judging institutional performance.
The definition of coordination cost, institutional change inefficiency, nature and source, and institutional change are related to institutional change.
The prisoner's dilemma, path dependence and principal-agent problem in moving to the middle are put forward from ten aspects.
A public policy to promote growth.
China's reform practice provides a natural experiment for the model.
Marketization index; estimating time series data of two types of institutional change; using correlation analysis, causality analysis and regression
The model explores the empirical relationship between institution and growth. The results show that institutional change is an important driving force for growth.
Contribution is second only to tangible capital, and TFP can be fully explained by institutional and human capital factors.
The correctness and explanatory power of the formal model are confirmed by the agreement with the theoretical prediction. Finally, the growth is promoted.
Some suggestions are put forward for institutional transformation.
【学位授予单位】：清华大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2002
【分类号】：F061.2
【引证文献】
相关期刊论文 前4条
1 何代欣;王谦;;政府绩效评估的可持续发展研究[J];上海城市管理职业技术学院学报;2006年04期
2 余凤龙;陆林;;制度变迁下的中国区域旅游发展与差异研究[J];人文地理;2010年03期
3 何代欣;王谦;罗为;;政府绩效评估的可持续性发展研究[J];中共福建省委党校学报;2006年02期
4 郑先勇;胡纯;;制度稳定性和变迁视角下的我国外商直接投资政策评价[J];特区经济;2010年08期
相关博士学位论文 前5条
1 刘欣欣;经济转型期的居民储蓄行为与经济增长[D];南开大学;2010年
2 吕向东;我国农业综合生产能力研究[D];中国农业科学院;2006年
3 汪锋;中国的制度变迁与经济发展不平衡：1978-2005[D];重庆大学;2007年
4 任军;内蒙古经济增长的动力机制研究[D];吉林大学;2008年
5 刘永刚;韩国经济增长与社会秩序转型演进轨迹研究[D];辽宁大学;2010年
相关硕士学位论文 前4条
1 王爽;S镇乡村旅游管理制度变迁研究[D];辽宁大学;2011年
2 隆连堂;技术进步、资源效率与经济增长系统动力学研究[D];大连理工大学;2006年
3 余凤龙;制度变迁的旅游发展效应研究[D];安徽师范大学;2006年
4 谢亮冯;论地方政府绩效评估长效机制的建设[D];四川大学;2007年
，本文编号：2249165
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/jingjilunwen/jingjililun/2249165.html
