基于交叉影响分析的技术预见模式及其应用研究

发布时间：2018-12-29 12:10

【摘要】： 随着人类社会的不断进步,技术在经济和社会发展过程中的作用越来越重要。但是,由于受到来自内部和外部的各种复杂因素的影响,技术在发展过程中的不确定性不断增加。因此,科学合理的技术预见活动就显得十分必要,并逐渐被政府部门和科研机构所重视。交叉影响分析方法是美国学者T.J. Gordon等人于1968年正式提出的一种充分考虑事件之间相互影响的技术预见方法。为了深入了解交叉影响分析方法的分析过程和最新发展方向,从而为基于交叉影响分析方法的技术预见活动提供指导,本文主要在以下三个方面进行了探索和努力。首先,系统研究了交叉影响分析方法的分析模式和最新发展方向。本文认为在交叉影响分析方法的发展过程中主要形成了三种基本的分析模式,即:用于预见事件发生概率的模式、用于预见事件发展趋势的模式和用于选取关键事件的模式。随着技术预见要求的日益严格,相关学者在这三种基本分析模式的基础上对交叉影响分析方法进行了不断的改进。这种改进主要表现在将交叉影响分析方法融入其它技术预见方法中,在应用交叉影响分析方法时考虑其它因素(如:时间),以及用模糊数对未来进行预测等。本文挑选了三种比较典型的经过国内外学者改进后的交叉影响分析方法进行详细介绍。其次,提出基于交叉影响分析的技术预见模式。为了更好地在实践中应用交叉影响分析方法,本文结合基于即时通信技术的群体决策支持系统对基于交叉影响分析的技术预见过程进行了详细介绍。基于即时通信技术的群体决策支持系统有效地解决了在不同时间或空间下众多专家的组织问题。通过这种系统,专家可以及时获取与某项技术预见相关的资料,并对该技术的发展前景做出判断或估计。同时,为了获取众多专家的一致性意见,头脑风暴和德尔菲也被应用到预见过程中去。通过决策支持系统的即时讨论功能实现头脑风暴的过程,通过多次及时的意见反馈实现德尔菲过程。最后,实现了基于交叉影响分析的技术预见模式的简单应用。为了更好地把握北京地区ETC系统的发展前景,本文尝试按照基于交叉影响分析的技术预见模式的具体操作过程实现对这项技术的简单预测。本文将腾讯QQ的群功能作为一个简单的基于即时通信技术的群体决策支持系统来应用。在头脑风暴和德尔菲思想的指导下,本文获得了专家对与北京地区ETC系统发展相关的初始数据的一致性意见和估计。然后,本文对用于预见事件发生概率的交叉影响分析方法进行了计算机语言编程,并实现了对以上初始数据的运算,得到了比较好的预见效果。
[Abstract]:With the continuous progress of human society, technology plays an increasingly important role in the process of economic and social development. However, due to the influence of complex factors, both internal and external, the uncertainty of technology in the development process is increasing. Therefore, scientific and reasonable technology foresight activities are very necessary, and gradually paid attention to by government departments and scientific research institutions. Cross-impact analysis method is a technical foresight method, which was put forward by T. J. Gordon et al., in 1968, which fully considers the interaction between events. In order to deeply understand the analytical process and the latest development direction of the cross-impact analysis method and to provide guidance for the technical foresight activities based on the cross-impact analysis method, this paper mainly explores and makes efforts in the following three aspects. Firstly, the analytical model and the latest development direction of the cross-influence analysis method are systematically studied. In this paper, it is considered that there are three basic analytical models in the development of cross-impact analysis, that is, the model used to predict the probability of occurrence of events, the model for predicting the trend of events and the mode for selecting critical events. With the increasingly stringent requirements of technology foresight, relevant scholars have improved the cross-impact analysis method on the basis of these three basic analytical models. This improvement mainly shows that the cross-impact analysis method is incorporated into other technical foresight methods, other factors (such as time) are taken into account when applying the cross-impact analysis method, and the fuzziness number is used to predict the future. In this paper, three typical cross-impact analysis methods, which have been improved by domestic and foreign scholars, are selected to be introduced in detail. Secondly, the technology foresight model based on cross impact analysis is proposed. In order to better apply the method of cross impact analysis in practice, this paper introduces the process of technology foresight based on cross impact analysis in detail in combination with group decision support system based on instant communication technology. The group decision support system based on instant communication technology effectively solves the organization problem of many experts in different time or space. Through this system, experts can obtain the information related to the prediction of a certain technology in time, and judge or estimate the development prospect of the technology. At the same time, brainstorming and Delphi have been applied to foresight in order to obtain the consensus of many experts. The brainstorming process is realized by the instant discussion function of DSS, and Delphi process is realized by timely feedback. Finally, the simple application of technology foresight model based on cross impact analysis is realized. In order to better understand the development prospect of ETC system in Beijing, this paper attempts to realize the simple prediction of this technology according to the concrete operation process of technology foresight mode based on cross impact analysis. In this paper, the group function of Tencent QQ is applied as a simple group decision support system based on instant messaging technology. Under the guidance of brainstorming and Delphi's thought, this paper obtains the consistency and estimation of the initial data related to the development of ETC system in Beijing. Then, the cross-influence analysis method used to predict the occurrence probability of an event is programmed in computer language, and the operation of the above initial data is realized, and a good prediction effect is obtained.
【学位授予单位】：北京工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2009
【分类号】：F062.4

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