互联网企业“生意宝”估值案例分析

发布时间：2018-03-17 04:05

本文选题：互联网商业模式　切入点：DCF估值　出处：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着中国互联网产业的日渐兴盛,与之相关的投资、融资活动也变得更加活跃。而国际和国内的专家、学者们对企业估值模型的研究也一直处在不断发展进步中。无论是在学术研究界还是在资本投资领域,对于企业估值模型的研究和应用都有着迫切的需要和十分重大的意义。目前对于上市公司估值的研究方法包括现金流折现法(DCF)、可比较公司估值法、实物期权估值法。本文着力于上市公司估值中最活跃也是最难以解决的部分:针对互联网企业的价值评估。通过对目前主流估值模型的研究和应用,并比较评判其各自的优点和缺憾,从理论分析中找出各个估值模型的短板。而后通过一个互联网企业的真实案例,搜集相关的数据加以分析,力求通过数据的比对和模型的应用,构建一个对现有估值模型的改进方案,希望能为互联网企业的估值提供一定的参考和带来新的思路。案例研究主要运用到的理论基础为DCF现金流折现理论、以市盈率、市净率为代表的相对估值理论,并根据目前对互联网企业估值有着重大影响和意义的梅特卡夫法则(Metcalfe's Law),选择互联网活跃用户数这一关键性因素对传统的市销率相对估值模型进行改进,得出一个基于市场销售额、客户数的多因子相对估值模型。分别运用现金流折现模型、市盈率估值模型及改进的多因子相对估值模型对上市企业“生意宝”进行估值,比较三种估值模型结果,可得出对于互联网企业的估值,运用梅特卡夫法则将客户活跃用户数作为估值参数的新模型有着比传统模型更贴合企业实际价值的估值结果,但在模型的实际运用中,由于改进的模型为市销率相对估值模型,本身以销售额作为估值参数,已经隐含了客户带来的价值,因此添加的参数活跃用户数应取一次方面非机械运用梅特卡夫法则的客户数的平方作估值估计更为准确。经理论分析论证,新的估值模型既保留了相对估值法的客观性的优点,又考虑了影响估值的内生变量,因此得到的估值结果更为理想。
[Abstract]:As China's Internet industry flourishes and the related investments become more active, international and domestic experts, Scholars' research on corporate valuation models is also in the process of continuous development, whether in the field of academic research or in the field of capital investment. There is an urgent need and great significance for the research and application of the enterprise valuation model. At present, the research methods of the listed company valuation include the cash flow discounted method, the comparable company valuation method, the cash flow discounted method and the comparable company valuation method. Real option valuation method. This paper focuses on the most active and difficult part of the valuation of listed companies: the valuation of Internet companies. Through the research and application of the current mainstream valuation model, And compare their advantages and disadvantages, from the theoretical analysis to find out the short board of each valuation model. Then through a real case of Internet enterprises, collect relevant data to analyze. Strive to build an improved scheme for the existing valuation model through the comparison of data and the application of the model. The main theoretical basis of the case study is the discounted cash flow theory of DCF, the relative valuation theory represented by price-to-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio. According to Metcalfes Law, which has great influence and significance on the valuation of Internet enterprises at present, this paper selects the key factor of the number of Internet active users to improve the traditional relative valuation model of market sales rate. A multi-factor relative valuation model based on the market sales and the number of customers is obtained. The discounted cash flow model, the price-earnings ratio valuation model and the improved multi-factor relative valuation model are used to evaluate the "business treasure" of listed enterprises. By comparing the results of the three valuation models, we can conclude that the new model, which uses Metcalfe's rule to take the number of active customers as the valuation parameter, is more suitable to the real value of the enterprise than the traditional model. However, in the practical application of the model, because the improved model is the relative valuation model of the market sales rate, the value brought by the customer has been implied by taking the sales volume as the valuation parameter. Therefore, the number of active users added should be estimated more accurately by the square of the number of clients who are not mechanically used in the Metcalfe rule. Through theoretical analysis, it is proved that the new valuation model not only preserves the advantage of objectivity of the relative valuation method, The endogenous variables which affect the estimation are also considered, so the estimated results are more ideal.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F724.6;F832.51

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