基于改进BP神经网络的河北省碳排放量增长影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-01-21 01:16

本文关键词： 环境学碳排放量影响因素 BP神经网络影响力系数　出处：《安全与环境学报》2013年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：根据河北省1995—2010年能源消耗量和碳排放系数计算碳排放量,确定人口数量、GDP、第二产业比重、能源结构、技术进步及能源价格为碳排放量的主要影响因素,运用改进的BP神经网络方法计算这些因素对碳排放量的影响力系数,评价各因素对碳排放量的影响程度。结果表明:与碳排放量具有正相关关系的因素为GDP、第二产业比重、人口数量和能源价格,其影响力系数分别为1.12、0.92、0.42和0.12,这说明GDP增加是导致碳排放增加最重要的因素,第二产业比重提高是导致碳排放增加的次级因素;与碳排放量具有负相关关系的因素为能源结构和技术进步,其影响力系数分别为-0.47和-0.26,能源结构多元化是降低碳排放量的主要因素,技术进步也是降低碳排放不可忽略的因素。为此,河北省应采取降低第二产业比重、增加第三产业比重、改进能源结构、降低煤炭消耗比重、提升技术进步水平等措施来降低碳排放量。
[Abstract]:According to the energy consumption and carbon emission coefficient of Hebei province from 1995 to 2010, the carbon emissions were calculated, and the population number, the proportion of secondary industry and the energy structure were determined. Technological progress and energy price are the main influencing factors of carbon emissions. The influence coefficient of these factors on carbon emissions is calculated by using the improved BP neural network method. The results showed that the factors with positive correlation with carbon emissions were GDP, secondary industry proportion, population size and energy price. The influence coefficient was 1.12 ~ 0.92 ~ 0.42 and 0.12 respectively, which indicated that the increase of GDP was the most important factor leading to the increase of carbon emissions. The increase of secondary industry proportion is the secondary factor leading to the increase of carbon emission. The factors negatively related to carbon emissions are energy structure and technological progress, whose influence coefficients are -0.47 and -0.26 respectively. Diversification of energy structure is the main factor to reduce carbon emissions. Therefore, Hebei Province should take measures to reduce the proportion of the secondary industry, increase the proportion of the tertiary industry, improve the energy structure, and reduce the proportion of coal consumption. Raise the level of technological progress and other measures to reduce carbon emissions.
【作者单位】：燕山大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：2011年国家社会科学基金项目(11BJY020)
【分类号】：X196
【正文快照】： 0引言随着经济的快速发展,尤其是化石能源消耗的快速增长,我国的碳排放增速不断增大。根据国际能源署的统计(IEA,2009),2007年中国因化石燃料消耗而排放的二氧化碳总量已经超过美国,成为全球最大的碳排放国。因此,如何降低碳排放、实现可持续发展成为我国面临的重要课题。研究

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