征收碳税和发展可再生能源研究——基于OLG-CGE模型的增长及福利效应分析

发布时间：2018-01-23 20:48

本文关键词： 碳税可再生能源经济增长代际福利　出处：《中国工业经济》2015年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文基于OLG-CGE情景模拟,比较征收碳税与发展可再生能源在未来35年对经济增长及居民福利的动态影响。研究发现:两类政策都将抬高平均能源价格,但其宏观经济效应恰恰相反。如果中国逐步提升可再生能源份额至35%,短期内,能源推动型价格上涨将抑制消费、投资及产出增长;长期内,可再生能源的发展将加速资本与劳动供给、推动能源节约型技术进步,最终带动增长回升。碳税影响取决于其收入循环方式,如果用于扩大公共转移支付,将提高当前收入和消费,但不利于长期资本深化与技术进步作用:如果用于降低所得税,不仅能够改善短期收入,还将通过要素积累与能源效率改善产生持久增长效应,但却对能源结构提升作用有限。在福利再分配上,发展可再生能源对老年世代损害较小;碳税则具有对年轻世代有利的再分配特征。两类政策在宏观效果上都有两面性,中国应当依据其短期和长期的动态影响演变,建立多种手段并用且重点突出的灵活低碳发展战略,以应对未来气候变化的挑战。
[Abstract]:This paper is based on OLG-CGE scenario simulation. Comparing the dynamic effects of carbon tax and renewable energy development on economic growth and residents' welfare in the next 35 years, the study found that both types of policies will raise the average energy price. But its macroeconomic effect is quite the opposite. If China gradually increases its share of renewable energy to 35g, in the short term, rising energy-driven prices will dampen growth in consumption, investment and output; In the long run, the development of renewable energy will accelerate the supply of capital and labor, promote the progress of energy-efficient technology, and eventually lead to a rise in growth. The impact of the carbon tax depends on its income cycle. If used to expand public transfer payments, it would increase current income and consumption, but would not be conducive to long-term capital deepening and technological progress: if used to reduce income tax, it would not only improve short-term income. It will also produce lasting growth effect through factor accumulation and energy efficiency improvement, but it will have limited effect on energy structure upgrading. In welfare redistribution, the development of renewable energy will do little harm to the older generation; The carbon tax has the characteristics of redistribution beneficial to the younger generation. Both types of policies have two sides in the macro effect, and China should change according to its short and long term dynamic influence. Establish flexible and focused low-carbon development strategies with multiple tools to address the challenges of climate change in the future.
【作者单位】：复旦大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国特色公共经济理论与政策研究”(批准号11&ZD073) 中国博士后基金面上项目“公共财政结构、居民收入与经济增长质量”(批准号2012M520788) 国家自然科学基金青年项目“中国碳排放水平与要素总成本关系探讨”(批准号71203070)
【分类号】：X196;F426.2;F812.42
【正文快照】： 一、问题提出中国的碳税从理论、政策到技术层面一直处于不断酝酿之中,而部分发达国家却对碳税产生质疑,转而倡导可再生能源建设。澳大利亚认为碳税对减少碳排放的作用微乎其微,已将其废除,转向100%可再生能源发电目标;法国用碳税所得来补贴可再生能源,并计划将气候政策重点从

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