自然资源约束下的最优经济增长分析

发布时间：2018-03-20 00:32

本文选题：自然资源　切入点：经济增长　出处：《湘潭大学》2008年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】： 二十世纪中期以来,随着社会生产力的极大进步和经济的高速增长,人们对自然资源的消耗剧增,提供自然资源的生态环境也遭到严重破坏,自然资源耗竭与经济持续增长之间的矛盾日显突出,引起了社会各界的普遍关注和忧虑。而中国经济自改革开放以来也经历了近三十年的高速增长,这一增长过程不可避免地伴随着自然资源的巨大消耗,考虑到中国自然资源人均占有量相对较少及开发利用效率相对较低的国情,中国自然资源约束的问题更加显得严重和紧迫。在这样的现实背景下,本文以现代经济增长理论与可持续发展理论为基础,讨论了在自然资源的约束条件下,经济能否以及如何实现可持续增长的问题。我们将自然资源作为生产要素引入到最优经济增长的理论框架中,首先分析了自然资源约束下的新古典增长模型,用以揭示自然资源对经济可持续增长的约束效应,论证了在一个既无人力资本积累,也没有技术进步的经济中,随着自然资源的耗竭,经济将出现负增长,也就是说经济的可持续增长是不可能的;随后,通过构建一个引入了自然资源要素的内生增长模型,来考察人力资本积累及技术研发在克服自然资源约束中的作用机制,模型分析的结果表明,只要人力资本积累及技术研发有足够高的效率,则经济就可克服自然资源的相对稀缺和不断耗竭,实现可持续的增长。在理论模型的基础上,我们以能源作为自然资源的代表变量,以中国1984-2006年的时间序列数据为样本,对中国自然资源与经济增长的关系进行了实证分析。通过对实证检验结果的分析发现,中国经济增长尚未受到自然资源的严重制约,这主要是因为物质资本和劳动力的投入仍然是中国经济增长的基本源泉。然而,中国经济的高速增长却是以能源的高消耗为代价的,这意味着若这一粗放型的增长方式得不到根本转变,则中国经济难以实现长期可持续的增长,对此,尽管中国经济已在市场经济体制改革、能源消费结构及产业结构优化调整和节能技术研发等方面做出反应,但反应力度仍然是不够的,特别是当因体制和结构调整而带来的资源利用效率的提高趋于平缓时,技术的进步在克服自然资源的稀缺中所起的作用就尤为重要了。最后,基于以上理论模型的结论和实证结果的分析,我们给出了一些政策建议,并指出几个可能的进一步研究的方向。
[Abstract]:Since the middle of 20th century, with the great progress of social productivity and rapid economic growth, people's consumption of natural resources has increased dramatically, and the ecological environment that provides natural resources has also been seriously damaged. The contradiction between depletion of natural resources and sustained economic growth has become increasingly prominent, which has aroused widespread concern and concern from all walks of life. However, China's economy has experienced rapid growth for nearly 30 years since the reform and opening up. This process of growth is inevitably accompanied by enormous consumption of natural resources, taking into account the relatively small per capita share of natural resources and the relatively low efficiency of development and utilization in China. China's natural resources constraints are more serious and urgent. On the basis of modern economic growth theory and sustainable development theory, this paper discusses whether and how to realize sustainable growth under the constraint of natural resources. We introduce natural resources as a factor of production into the theoretical framework of optimal economic growth. Firstly, we analyze the neo-classical growth model under the constraint of natural resources to reveal the constraint effect of natural resources on sustainable economic growth. Demonstrates that in an economy without human capital accumulation or technological progress, with the depletion of natural resources, the economy will experience negative growth, that is, sustainable economic growth will not be possible; subsequently, By constructing an endogenous growth model which introduces natural resource elements to investigate the mechanism of human capital accumulation and technology development in overcoming the constraints of natural resources, the results of the model analysis show that, As long as human capital accumulation and technological research and development are efficient enough, the economy can overcome the relative scarcity and depletion of natural resources and achieve sustainable growth. On the basis of the theoretical model, we take energy as the representative variable of natural resources, and take the time series data of China from 1984 to 2006 as samples. This paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between natural resources and economic growth in China. Through the analysis of the empirical results, it is found that China's economic growth has not been seriously restricted by natural resources. This is mainly because the input of material capital and labor is still the basic source of China's economic growth. However, the rapid growth of China's economy is at the expense of high energy consumption. This means that if this extensive growth pattern is not fundamentally changed, it will be difficult for China's economy to achieve long-term sustainable growth, despite the fact that the Chinese economy has been reformed in the market economy. Energy consumption structure and industrial structure optimization and adjustment and energy saving technology research and development, etc., but the response is still not strong enough, especially when the improvement of resource utilization efficiency caused by system and structural adjustment tends to be levelling off. Technological advances play a particularly important role in overcoming the scarcity of natural resources. Finally, based on the conclusions of the above theoretical model and the analysis of the empirical results, we give some policy suggestions and point out several possible directions for further research.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2008
【分类号】：F224;F061.2

【引证文献】