碳排放交易对实现我国“十二五”减排目标的成本节约效应研究

发布时间：2018-03-28 07:24

本文选题：省际碳交易市场模型　切入点：边际减排成本　出处：《中国管理科学》2013年01期

【摘要】：本文针对实现我国"十二五"期间减排目标的现实背景,构建了一个省际排放权交易模型,重点探讨了在实现各省减排目标的过程中,碳排放权交易机制发挥的成本节约效应。研究设置了无碳交易市场(NETS)、仅包含北京等六个碳交易试点省市的碳交易市场(PETS)和全国范围内实施碳排放权交易(CETS)三种政策情景。通过模型分析得到以下结论:(1)为实现"十二五"碳强度减排目标,扣除自然下降率,全国二氧化碳排放需要减少约6.39亿吨,占当年总碳排放的6.65%;无碳排放交易时全国需要付出约157.62亿元的减排成本,占当年GDP的0.04%;六省市参与碳交易情景下,全国总的减排成本约为150.66亿元,节约减排成本4.42%,碳交易量为0.22亿吨CO2,占总减排量的3.39%,均衡碳价约为70.55元/吨CO2;全国碳市场情景下,全国总的减排成本约为120.68亿元,相比于无碳排放交易情景节约减排成本23.44%,碳交易量为1.21亿吨CO2,占总减排量的18.98%,均衡碳价约为38.17元/吨CO2;(2)碳交易市场对参与交易的省份的成本节约效应各不相同,总的来看,东、西部地区成本节约较为明显,部分西部地区能够在完成自身减排目标前提下,通过加入碳交易市场而获取正的收益。
[Abstract]:In view of the realistic background of realizing the emission reduction targets during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, this paper constructs an inter-provincial emission right trading model, which focuses on the process of realizing the emission reduction targets in various provinces. The cost-saving effect of carbon emissions trading mechanism. Research on the establishment of a carbon-free trading market, including only six carbon trading pilot provinces and cities in Beijing (PETSS) and the implementation of carbon emissions trading in China (CETS). From the model analysis, we can draw the following conclusion: 1) in order to achieve the carbon intensity reduction target of the 12th Five-Year Plan, After deducting the natural rate of decline, the national carbon dioxide emissions need to be reduced by about 639 million tons, accounting for 6.65 percent of the total carbon emissions in that year; the whole country has to pay about 15.762 billion yuan in the cost of reducing carbon emissions when trading without carbon emissions, accounting for 0.04 percent of the GDP in that year; six provinces and cities participate in the carbon trading scenario. The total cost of emission reduction in the whole country is about 15.066 billion yuan, the cost of reducing emissions is 4.42 percent, the volume of carbon trading volume is 22 million tons of CO2, accounting for 3.39 percent of the total amount of emission reduction, and the equilibrium carbon price is about 70.55 yuan per ton of CO2; under the national carbon market scenario, the total cost of reducing emissions in the whole country is about 12.068 billion yuan. Compared with the non-carbon emission trading scenario, the carbon trading volume is 121 million tons of CO2, accounting for 18.98% of the total emission reduction, and the equilibrium carbon price is about 38.17 yuan / ton of CO2.) the cost-saving effects of the carbon trading market on the participating provinces are different. Generally speaking, East, East, The cost saving in the western region is obvious, and some of the western regions can gain positive income by joining the carbon trading market on the premise of completing their own emission reduction targets.
【作者单位】：中国科学技术大学管理学院;中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所能源与环境政策研究中心;
【基金】：中国科学院碳专项(XDA05150700) 国家自然科学基金项目资助(70825001,71210005,71273253)
【分类号】：X196

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