福建省能源消费碳排放和低碳能源发展研究

发布时间：2018-04-10 09:59

本文选题：能源消费　切入点：碳排放　出处：《环境科学与技术》2011年11期

【摘要】：能源消费导致的碳排放对全球气候变化带来严峻挑战。区域经济迅速发展,不但对区域能源安全提出挑战,也对碳减排提出新的课题。文章总结了改革开放以来福建省能源消费的特点和趋势,计算由能源消费引起的碳排放量。研究表明,虽然碳强度有显著下降,但是碳排放总量增长比较明显,特别是从2000年开始,增长幅度加大。利用Kaya恒等式对碳排放因子进行分解显示,经济发展对碳排放总量增加的贡献率最大。能源强度的降低仍然无法抵消经济增长的贡献率。实证分析结果表明,经济发展总量与碳排放总量符合对数三次方程,呈折线上升趋势,福建省已经跨越碳排放第一阶段,实现了碳排放强度的稳定下降,目前处在人均碳排放高峰前阶段。对2020年能源消费碳排放预测表明,如果采取合理的能源结构,低碳能源的比重增加到17.9%和24%,可以分别实现碳强度比2005年降低40%和45%。最后文章提出福建省应该利用可再生资源的优势,制定合理的低碳能源发展战略,探索低碳经济的发展之路。
[Abstract]:Carbon emissions from energy consumption pose a serious challenge to global climate change.The rapid development of regional economy not only challenges the regional energy security, but also puts forward a new subject of carbon emission reduction.This paper summarizes the characteristics and trends of energy consumption in Fujian Province since the reform and opening up, and calculates the carbon emissions caused by energy consumption.The results show that although the carbon intensity has significantly decreased, the total amount of carbon emissions has increased significantly, especially since 2000.The decomposition of carbon emission factors by Kaya identity shows that economic development contributes the most to the increase of total carbon emissions.The decline in energy intensity still does not offset the contribution of economic growth.The results of empirical analysis show that the total amount of economic development and the total amount of carbon emissions accord with the logarithmic cubic equation and show a trend of rising linearly. Fujian Province has already crossed the first stage of carbon emissions and realized the steady decrease of carbon emission intensity.At present, the per capita carbon emissions peak stage.The prediction of carbon emissions from energy consumption in 2020 shows that if the energy structure is reasonable, the proportion of low-carbon energy can be increased to 17.9% and 24%, respectively, and the carbon intensity can be reduced by 40% and 45%, respectively, compared with 2005.Finally, the paper puts forward that Fujian Province should make use of the advantages of renewable resources, formulate a reasonable low-carbon energy development strategy, and explore the development of low-carbon economy.
【作者单位】：中国科学院城市环境与健康重点实验室中国科学院城市环境研究所;厦门市城市代谢重点实验室;
【基金】：厦门市科技项目(Y0G5831D30)
【分类号】：X196;X24

【参考文献】