欧盟碳减排目标的经济可能性评估

发布时间：2018-05-13 05:40

本文选题：碳排放 + 欧盟　；参考：《世界地理研究》2013年03期

【摘要】：经济发展与能源消耗有着密切的关系,文章通过选取1994年至2009年欧盟27国的人口、经济和能源数据,利用碳排放动力学模型对欧盟关于2050年前削减温室气体排放80-95%的承诺进行预测,并对欧盟目标下的减排情景进行了分析。结果表明:(1)以当前的技术进步速率下,沿最优平稳经济增长路线,到2050年欧盟的碳排放量将为775.608MtC,达不到预定的减排要求;(2)在最优经济增长速度得出总能源消费量的基础上,采用调整能源结构与碳捕捉技术,预期可以达到设定减排80%的任务。其每一期的煤炭占比、石油占比、天然气占比应分别有4%、2.26%、1.23%转移至非碳能源占比,非碳能源的上升速率应达到2.21%/年;(3)若以历史的能源结构转移趋势预测未来的能源结构占比,即使考虑能源利用效率和碳捕捉技术的预期目标,欧盟仍然达不到在2050年的减排目标;(4)考虑欧盟提出的四种减排路径上下限组合,可预计出到2050年欧盟的减排范围在80.51%-87.16%;(5)若欧盟重振工业(特别是制造业),即使考虑欧盟制定的减排路径,仍存在着达不到减排预期的可能。
[Abstract]:There is a close relationship between economic development and energy consumption. By selecting the population, economic and energy data of 27 EU countries from 1994 to 2009, the European Union's commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emission 80-95% before 2050 is predicted by using the carbon emission dynamic model, and the emission reduction scenarios under the EU target are analyzed. (1) under the current technological progress rate, along the optimal stable economic growth line, the carbon emissions of the EU will be 775.608MtC in 2050, which can not reach the desired emission reduction requirements. (2) on the basis of the optimal economic growth rate, the energy structure and carbon capture technology are used to adjust the energy structure and carbon capture technology, which is expected to reach a set emission reduction of 80%. In each period, the proportion of coal, oil and natural gas should be 4%, 2.26%, 1.23% to non carbon energy, and the rising rate of non carbon energy should reach 2.21%/ years; (3) if the historical energy structure transfer trend is to predict the future energy structure ratio, even considering the energy use efficiency and the expected target of carbon capture technology. The EU still does not reach the target of emission reduction in 2050; (4) considering the EU's four lower and lower bound combinations, the EU's emission reduction range is expected to be in 80.51%-87.16% in 2050; (5) if EU reinvigorate industry (especially manufacturing), even considering the EU made emission reduction path, there is still a possibility that the emission reduction is not expected.

【作者单位】：中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所;中国科学院研究生院;华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金“面向国家经济安全的地缘政治经济学研究”(编号:41171104) 国家重点基础研究发展规划(973):“气候变化经济过程的复杂性机制、新型集成评估模型簇与政策模拟平台研发”(编号:2012CB955800)
【分类号】：X196

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