中国进出口贸易碳转移排放测算方法分析与评价

发布时间：2018-05-19 04:42

本文选题：碳转移排放 + 测算方法　；参考：《地球科学进展》2011年10期

【摘要】：目前中国的碳转移排放测算方法有很多,虽然方法不尽相同,但总的结论和计算出的变化趋势类似。造成碳转移量测算结果产生较大差异的原因主要有两方面,一是碳排放强度的测算模型不同,二是对于中国加工贸易转移碳排放的认识不同。测算避免转移排放量时,如果不考虑加工贸易的影响,在某些年份(如2002年)甚至会得到"中国是碳转移的净进口国"的结论。在出口额远大于进口额的年份,与强大的规模效应相比,几乎所有不确定性产生的误差都可以忽略,不会影响"中国是碳转移的净出口国"的最终结论。鉴于规模效应是主导原因,出口贸易量与出口碳排放份额存在一定的对应关系,对测算结果进行合理性分析的结果显示:中国1997—2007年出口贸易额占国内生产总值中的比例由19%稳步增长到37%,出口碳排放的相对份额从18%～23%增加到33%～35%是相对合理的结果。
[Abstract]:At present, there are many methods for measuring carbon transfer emissions in China. Although the methods are different, the general conclusion and the calculated change trend are similar. There are two main reasons for the difference in the measurement results of carbon transfer, one is the different models of carbon emission intensity, the other is the different understanding of the transfer of carbon emissions in China's processing trade. If the effects of processing trade are not taken into account in the measurement of emissions avoidance, the conclusion that China is a net importer of carbon transfer may even be reached in some years (e.g. 2002). In years when exports are far larger than imports, almost all the uncertainties can be ignored compared with strong scale effects and will not affect the final conclusion that "China is a net exporter of carbon transfer". Since scale effect is the dominant reason, there is a certain corresponding relationship between export trade volume and export carbon emission share. The results of rationality analysis show that the proportion of China's export trade volume to GDP increased steadily from 19% to 37% in 1997-2007, and the relative share of export carbon emissions increased from 18% to 33%, which is a relatively reasonable result.
【作者单位】：北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院;天津大学环境科学与工程学院;中国地震局地质研究所;
【基金】：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目“转移排放与碳泄漏在谈判中的应用研究”(编号:2010CB955502-02) 教育部社科基金项目“中国贸易隐含碳转移变化和国际分工”(编号:11YJCZH177)资助
【分类号】：X196;F752

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