工业化、城镇化的动态边际碳排放量研究——基于LMDI“两层完全分解法”的分析框架

发布时间：2018-07-12 13:56

本文选题：区域碳减排 + 工业化　；参考：《中国工业经济》2013年09期

【摘要】：中国工业化、城镇化快速发展,但其所带来的环境问题也日益凸显。本文基于构建的LMDI"两层完全分解法"和中国1995—2011年30个省份7大部门CO2排放量及相关数据,分析工业化、城镇化的动态边际碳排放量。研究发现,由于中国工业能源利用率较低,工业规模扩张的边际碳排放量呈现下降趋势,但工业比重的边际碳排放量却呈现上升趋势,其17年平均值分别为3.81吨/万元和56.58MT(百万吨);城镇人口比重及商业规模的边际碳排放量波动幅度不大,其17年平均值分别为0.67吨/万元和6.83MT。进一步地,各地区间工业化、城镇化的边际碳排放量差异显著。由于经济(人口)规模的差异,工业(城镇人口)所占比重提高的边际碳排放量,东部地区要远大于中西部地区;相反,由于技术水平和产业结构的差异,工业(商业)增长的边际碳排放量,中西部地区远大于东部地区。因此,为实现碳减排,各地区应制定差异化的工业化、城镇化政策。
[Abstract]:China's industrialization and rapid development of urbanization, but its environmental problems are also increasingly prominent. Based on the constructed LMDI "two-layer complete decomposition method" and the CO _ 2 emissions from seven major sectors of 30 provinces in China from 1995 to 2011, this paper analyzes the dynamic marginal carbon emissions of industrialization and urbanization. The study found that the marginal carbon emissions of industrial expansion showed a downward trend, but the marginal carbon emissions of industrial proportion showed an upward trend, due to the low utilization of industrial energy in China. The average value of 17 years is 3.81 tons / 10,000 yuan and 56.58MT (million tons), and the marginal carbon emissions of urban population and commercial scale do not fluctuate. The 17-year average is 0.67 tons / 10,000 yuan and 6.83 MTT respectively. Furthermore, there are significant differences in marginal carbon emissions between different regions in terms of industrialization and urbanization. Because of the difference in the size of the economy (population), the increase in the proportion of industrial (urban population) in the marginal carbon emissions is much greater in the eastern region than in the central and western regions; on the contrary, due to differences in technology levels and industrial structure, Industrial (commercial) growth in marginal carbon emissions, the Midwest far larger than the eastern region. Therefore, in order to achieve carbon emission reduction, all regions should formulate differentiated industrialization and urbanization policies.
【作者单位】：华中师范大学经济与工商管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目“两型社会建设与中部地区工业增长模式研究”(批准号08AJY032) 教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划“‘低碳经济’与节能减排研究”(批准号NCET-10-0409)
【分类号】：F424;F299.2;X196

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