工业增长与环境污染关系的实证分析——以新疆为例

发布时间：2018-08-11 11:24

【摘要】：通过对国内外经济增长和环境污染关系文献的梳理,笔者发现很多学者研究二者之间关系都是通过拟合EKC曲线来说明,但拟合过程中还存在一些不足,在一定程度上降低了结论的可信度。本文在前人研究EKC的基础上,采用灰色主成分分析方法,构建工业增长环境综合指标,通过拟合三种模型来研究新疆工业增长和环境污染的关系,得出结论:新疆存在具有自身特点的U型特征的EKC曲线,2002年以后新疆工业环境综合指标值随着人均工业产值的上升而不断增加,污染不断加剧;重化工业的快速增长以及由此形成的结构性特征是造成新疆主要污染物排放难以下降并上升的直接原因。因此,建议把节能减排作为新疆工业结构调整的刚性指标,坚决抑制高耗能、高排放产业的增长,加快淘汰落后产能,大力发展循环经济、低碳经济,使工业发展建立在节约能源资源和保护环境的基础之上,真正实现经济又好又快发展的目标。
[Abstract]:By combing the literature on the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution at home and abroad, the author finds that many scholars study the relationship between the two by fitting the EKC curve, but there are still some shortcomings in the fitting process. To some extent, it reduces the credibility of the conclusion. Based on the previous research on EKC, this paper uses the grey principal component analysis method to construct the comprehensive index of industrial growth environment, and studies the relationship between industrial growth and environmental pollution in Xinjiang by fitting three kinds of models. It is concluded that there is a U-shaped EKC curve with its own characteristics in Xinjiang. After 2002, the comprehensive index value of industrial environment in Xinjiang increases with the increase of industrial output value per capita, and the pollution becomes more and more serious. The rapid growth of heavy chemical industry and the resulting structural characteristics are the direct reasons for the difficulty of decreasing and rising the main pollutant emissions in Xinjiang. Therefore, it is suggested that energy saving and emission reduction should be regarded as a rigid index for industrial restructuring in Xinjiang, that the growth of high energy consumption and high emission industries should be firmly suppressed, that backward production capacity should be eliminated, and that circular economy and low-carbon economy should be vigorously developed. The industrial development is based on saving energy resources and protecting environment, and realize the goal of sound and rapid economic development.
【作者单位】：新疆财经大学统计与信息学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“基于评价与预警的新疆区域经济与环境协调发展综合研究”(批准号:70863010)阶段性成果
【分类号】：F427;X196;F224

【参考文献】