吉林省经济增长与环境污染水平演进关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-08-15 18:58

【摘要】：基于环境库兹涅茨曲线假设(EKC),采用吉林省1981—2010年的环境污染指标与经济增长指标数据,经统计回归得到环境污染指标与经济增长指标演进关系的计量模型,进而研究分析EKC的曲线特征。结果表明:吉林省的环境污染指标EKC形状不完全符合典型的"倒U型"特征。其中,工业废水排放量的EKC呈现"正U+倒U型",在2009年出现拐点;工业废气排放量EKC呈连续增长态势,无拐点;工业固体废弃物产生量的EKC大致处于"倒U型"的左半部分,预计于2014年到达拐点;工业粉尘排放量的EKC呈对数函数,呈逐渐减小的趋势,不存在拐点;工业SO2排放量的EKC呈"正U+倒U型",2008年出现拐点;工业废水COD排放量的EKC呈现不明显的"正U+倒U型",2009年出现拐点,吉林省总体环境污染处于不断改善的阶段。灰色关联分析表明:吉林省环境污染指标的主要影响因素有工业比率、第三产业比率、单位GDP能耗、环境科研人数4个方面。吉林省必须采取一系列有效的对策,优化现有产业结构、加大科技创新力度、提高环境科研人员数量与素质,以保证经济增长与环境保护协调健康发展。
[Abstract]:Based on the assumption of environmental Kuznets curve, (EKC), adopts the environmental pollution index and economic growth index data from 1981 to 2010 in Jilin Province, and obtains the econometric model of the evolution of environmental pollution index and economic growth index by statistical regression. Then the curve characteristics of EKC are analyzed. The results showed that the EKC shape of the environmental pollution index in Jilin Province did not conform to the typical "inverted U" shape. Among them, the EKC of industrial waste water discharge is "positive U inverted U", which appears inflection point in 2009; the EKC of industrial waste gas emission shows a continuous increasing trend, no inflection point; the EKC of industrial solid waste production is roughly in the left half of "inverted U type". It is expected to reach the inflection point in 2014; the EKC of industrial dust emission is a logarithmic function with a decreasing trend, and there is no inflection point; the EKC of industrial SO2 emission is "positive U inverted U", and the inflexion point appears in 2008; The EKC of COD discharge from industrial wastewater is not obvious "positive U inverted U". In 2009, the inflection point appeared, and the overall environmental pollution of Jilin Province is in the stage of continuous improvement. Grey correlation analysis shows that the main influencing factors of environmental pollution index in Jilin Province are industrial ratio, tertiary industry ratio, energy consumption per unit GDP, and the number of environmental scientific research. Jilin Province must take a series of effective countermeasures, optimize the existing industrial structure, increase the intensity of scientific and technological innovation, improve the number and quality of environmental scientific research personnel, so as to ensure the coordinated and healthy development of economic growth and environmental protection.
【作者单位】：白城师范学院地理科学学院;东北师范大学城市与环境科学学院;
【基金】：吉林省教育厅科研项目(吉教科合字(2013)第391号) 吉林省科技发展计划项目(20120408) 国家自然科学基金(41071388)
【分类号】：X196

【参考文献】