不确定性下排污权交易的排污目标管理及最高限价制度研究

发布时间：2018-08-31 14:23

【摘要】：经济活动中存在大量的随机性,排污交易市场同样存在随机现象,因此,我们在考虑政策工具的选择时,必须在不确定性情况下进行才较为合理。本文建立了排放交易市场的分析模型,该模型避免了减排政策和许可证交易之间存在的时滞矛盾以及在制定减排政策时存在的与未来无约束排放有关的不确定性问题。模型的目的是分析不同政策在设计排污交易市场时的作用。分析者通过设定两个主要政策参数:排放目标和交易最高限制价格,强调降低污染物排放的政府规制作用。研究结果表明,这两个用于控制排放总量的政策参数最易受到某种非确定因素的影响,而这种不确定性主要来自于无约束的总量排放,而这种不确定性也使得两种参数在政策制定过程中具有互补作用。当不确定性较小,调整最高交易限制价被证实在控制污染物排放总量时是无效的,而当存在明显的不确定性时,设定排放目标对控制总量也是无效的。研究也发现,在目标控制和总量控制之间也存在着特殊的共性,即减少排放总量不受这种不确定性的影响。这个发现为我们在制定排污权交易市场相关政策提供了现实选择,而这个市场必须是能够实现每单位最大排放量和总量排放目标的最优组合结果。
[Abstract]:There is a large amount of randomness in economic activities, and there is also a random phenomenon in the emission trading market. Therefore, when we consider the choice of policy tools, it is more reasonable to do so under uncertain circumstances. In this paper, an analytical model of emission trading market is established. The model avoids the time delay contradiction between emission reduction policy and license trading and the uncertainty related to future unconstrained emissions in making emission reduction policy. The purpose of the model is to analyze the role of different policies in the design of emission trading market. By setting two main policy parameters: the emission target and the maximum limit price, the analysts emphasize the role of government regulation to reduce the emission of pollutants. The results show that the two policy parameters used to control the total amount of emissions are most vulnerable to some uncertainty, which comes mainly from unconstrained aggregate emissions, This uncertainty also makes the two parameters complementary in the policy-making process. When the uncertainty is small, the adjustment of the maximum trading limit price is proved to be ineffective in controlling the total amount of pollutant emissions, and when there is obvious uncertainty, setting the emission target is also ineffective for the total amount of control. It is also found that there is a special commonality between target control and total control, that is, the total emission reduction is not affected by this uncertainty. This finding provides a realistic choice for us to formulate policies related to the emissions trading market, which must be an optimal combination of targets per unit of maximum emissions and total emissions.
【作者单位】：重庆工商大学;中国人民大学;重庆理工大学;
【基金】：教育部人文社科青年项目“三峡库区环境区居民传统环境权利剥夺的生态补偿制度研究”(项目编号:10YJC790250) 重庆市哲学社会科学规划项目“三峡工程后续期生态补偿制度研究”(项目编号:2010YBJJ09)
【分类号】：X196

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