经济增长与农业碳排放关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-11-06 17:51

【摘要】：研究首先基于农业投入与生产视角的6个主要方面碳源,测算了1993-2008年我国农业生产活动所导致的碳排放量,分析发现我国农业碳排放总量和强度分别年均增长率为4.08%、2.38%,但环比增速总体上处于阶段性下降态势。化肥、农药、农膜、农用柴油、灌溉、翻耕等导致碳排放年均递增率分别为3.45%、4.65%、7.20%、4.77%、1.22%、0.38%。进一步综合运用协整理论及误差修正模型,实证我国经济增长与农业碳排放之间的关系。结果表明:我国经济增长与农业碳排放总强度,以及经济增长与化肥、农药、农膜、农用柴油、翻耕等5类碳源导致的碳排放强度之间存在协整关系,且人均GDP每增加1%,农业碳排放总强度与化肥、农药、农膜、农用柴油、翻耕等碳源的碳排放强度分别增加1.72%、1.61%、1.18%、0.40%、2.48%和1.31%。最后,据此提出相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:First of all, based on the six main carbon sources from the perspective of agricultural input and production, the carbon emissions caused by agricultural production activities in China from 1993 to 2008 were calculated. It is found that the annual average annual growth rate of total carbon emission and intensity of agriculture in China is 4.08 and 2.38 respectively, but the overall growth rate of agricultural carbon emission is in a phase decreasing trend. Chemical fertilizer, pesticide, agricultural film, agricultural diesel oil, irrigation, tillage and so on resulted in carbon emission increase rate of 3.45% 4.65% and 7.20% 4.20% 4.77% 1.22% 0.38% per year, respectively. Furthermore, the relationship between China's economic growth and agricultural carbon emissions is demonstrated by using the model of co-collation and error correction. The results show that there is a cointegration relationship between economic growth and total carbon emission intensity of agriculture, and between economic growth and carbon emission intensity caused by five kinds of carbon sources, such as chemical fertilizer, pesticide, agricultural film, agricultural diesel oil and tillage, and the per capita GDP increases by 1%. The total carbon emission intensity of agriculture and the carbon emission intensity of chemical fertilizer, pesticide, agricultural film, agricultural diesel oil, tilling and other carbon sources increased by 1.72% and 1.18%, respectively, and by 2.48% and 1.31%, respectively. Finally, the relevant policy recommendations are put forward.
【作者单位】：中南民族大学经济学院;中国科学院国家民委农业信息技术研究与开发联合实验室;
【基金】：教育部人文社科项目(12YJC790089) 国家软科学研究计划项目(2011GXQ4B016) 湖北省软科学项目(BZY10018)
【分类号】：X196

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