基于偏最小二乘模型的碳排放区域差异及影响因素的实证分析

发布时间：2018-11-13 13:30

【摘要】：本文对我国30个省份2000~2010年主要能源的二氧化碳排放量进行测算,通过K-均值聚类分析将各省域按照"排放———效率"类型分为四大类,并运用偏最小二乘建模分析了能源消费结构、经济发展水平、产业结构、人口规模、城市化率以及碳排放强度对4类区域碳排放的影响。结果表明:4类区域的二氧化碳排放存在明显差异,人口规模、产业结构和碳排放强度是4类地区碳排放共同的驱动因素;对于高排———低效地区和低排———低效地区,经济发展水平与碳排放呈倒U型关系,高排———高效地区与低排———高效地区的经济发展水平与碳排放之间并无显著的倒U型关系;另外,能源消费结构与4类地区碳排放的相关性存在明显差异。本文对上述差异做出分析与解释,并提出了相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the carbon dioxide emissions from the main energy sources in 30 provinces of China from 2000 to 2010 are measured. By means of K-means clustering analysis, the provinces are divided into four categories according to the type of "emission-efficiency". The effects of energy consumption structure, economic development level, industrial structure, population size, urbanization rate and carbon emission intensity on the four types of regional carbon emissions were analyzed by using partial least squares model. The results show that there are obvious differences in carbon dioxide emissions among the four regions, and the population size, industrial structure and carbon emission intensity are the common driving factors of carbon emissions in the four types of regions. For high emission low efficiency area and low emission low efficiency area, the relationship between economic development level and carbon emission is inverted U type. There is no significant relationship between the level of economic development and carbon emissions in high and low emission efficient areas. In addition, there are significant differences between the energy consumption structure and the carbon emissions in the four regions. This paper analyzes and explains the above differences and puts forward corresponding policy suggestions.
【作者单位】：合肥工业大学;
【基金】：2010年度教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(项目编号:10YJA790252) 2012年度国家软科学研究计划项目(项目编号:2012GXS4D085) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(项目编号:2012HGXJ0080)
【分类号】：X196;F224

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