中国环境治理投资对环境质量冲击的计量分析——基于VEC模型与脉冲响应函数

发布时间：2018-11-26 10:13

【摘要】：在低碳经济的发展如日中天的形势下,经济快速发展所诱发的环境问题引起了各界人士的广泛关注。加大对环境治理的投资已是大势所趋。"清洁发展机制"(CDM)以及"绿色信贷"(Green Credit)等新措施,为环境治理投资开辟了新路径。本文在前人研究的基础之上,基于中国统计年鉴公布的1998-2008年工业GDP、工业废气排放量以及工业废气治理投资额,使用单位根检验、Johansen协整检验等方法对数据进行处理,使用误差修正模型(VEC)和脉冲响应函数(IRF)对环境治理投资对环境质量的冲击路径进行模拟。得到的结论是,我国目前环境治理投资与环境质量之间存在长期的均衡关系,环境治理投资对环境质量有正向的冲击,但冲击持续的时间较短。与此同时,环境质量的变化会给环境治理投资带来长达10期的较大幅度的冲击,并且随着环境治理投资的效应逐渐显现即环境质量的改善,环境治理的投资额逐步下降。鉴于这种情形,我国政府、商业银行和企业应该加强对环境的关注,建立环境治理投资的长效机制,调整投资结构,通过各种途径加大对环境治理的投资。
[Abstract]:With the development of low-carbon economy, the environmental problems caused by the rapid development of economy have attracted wide attention from all walks of life. Increasing investment in environmental governance is the trend of the times. New measures such as "Clean Development Mechanism" (CDM) and "Green Credit" (Green Credit) have opened up a new path for investment in environmental governance. On the basis of previous studies, this paper deals with the data by using the methods of unit root test and Johansen cointegration test, which are based on the industrial GDP, emissions and the amount of industrial waste gas treatment investment published in the China Statistical Yearbook from 1998 to 2008. An error correction model (VEC) and impulse response function (IRF) are used to simulate the impact path of environmental governance investment on environmental quality. The conclusion is that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the investment in environmental governance and environmental quality in China. The investment in environmental governance has a positive impact on environmental quality, but the impact duration is relatively short. At the same time, the change of environmental quality will bring about a great impact on the investment in environmental governance for up to 10 periods, and with the effect of investment in environmental governance gradually appearing, that is, the improvement of environmental quality, the investment in environmental governance will decrease gradually. In view of this situation, our government, commercial banks and enterprises should pay more attention to the environment, establish a long-term mechanism of investment in environmental governance, adjust the investment structure, and increase investment in environmental governance through various ways.
【作者单位】：吉林大学商学院;中国国有经济研究中心;
【基金】：国家社科基金重点项目(编号:No.10aj1006)
【分类号】：X196

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