基于突变级数法的中国低碳经济复杂系统综合评价

发布时间：2018-12-18 12:22

【摘要】：低碳经济是人类社会实现可持续发展的内在要求和重要途径,是应对气候变化的必然选择。首先界定了低碳经济SREE复杂系统,该系统由社会、资源、经济和环境4个相互独立又相互联系的子系统构成的复杂巨系统。以此为基础,构建了包括经济系统、资源环境系统和社会系统在内的低碳经济复杂系统综合评价指标体系。考虑到运用突变级数法对指标体系进行评价的需要,指标体系全部由定量指标构成,避免了人为确定定性指标权重的主观性。其次,运用突变级数评价方法对2005～2009年的中国低碳经济复杂系统进行了评价。从评价结果来看,我国低碳经济复杂系统按照波浪型曲线运行,这是国际金融危机和国内经济结构调整双重因素导致的结果,同时也是复杂系统内部子系统相互影响、相互作用的结果。最后,提出了当前中国低碳经济复杂系统可持续发展的相应战略。
[Abstract]:Low-carbon economy is the internal requirement and important way for human society to realize sustainable development, and it is the inevitable choice to deal with climate change. Firstly, the SREE complex system of low carbon economy is defined. The system is composed of four independent and interrelated subsystems: society, resources, economy and environment. On this basis, a comprehensive evaluation index system of complex low-carbon economy system, including economic system, resource environment system and social system, is constructed. Considering the need to evaluate the index system by using the catastrophe series method, the index system is composed of quantitative indexes, which avoids the subjectivity of artificially determining the weights of qualitative indexes. Secondly, the paper evaluates the complex system of low carbon economy in China from 2005 to 2009 by using the method of catastrophe series evaluation. From the evaluation results, the complex system of low carbon economy in our country runs according to the wave curve, which is the result of the double factors of international financial crisis and domestic economic structure adjustment, and also the interaction of the internal subsystems of the complex system. The result of interaction. Finally, the corresponding strategies for the sustainable development of the complex system of low carbon economy in China are put forward.
【作者单位】：东北石油大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目“低碳经济下的我国政府环境规制研究”(10CGL053)
【分类号】：X196

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