天津港东疆自贸港区吞吐量预测分析

发布时间：2017-12-26 19:33

本文关键词：天津港东疆自贸港区吞吐量预测分析　出处：《大连海事大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2006年8月31日,国务院正式批复设立天津东疆保税港区,推动天津滨海新区的开发开放。2015年4月21日天津自贸实验区正式挂牌成立,依托于天津港、毗邻滨海新区,作为天津自贸区最重要发展核心之一的东疆自由贸易港区将会是未来整个自贸区发展战略的重中之重。自由贸易港区是一种特殊的港口或者港区的概念,通过利用减免关税和自由出入这些优惠待遇性质的手段,从而达到推动该区域以及带动周边区域高速发展的目的。自由贸易区和自由贸易港区,都可以享有免征关税等优惠待遇并且不受主权国海关监督。各种优惠政策会使自由贸易港区的吞吐量增长的更加迅速,港口运输压力也相应提高。选对方法,并对在自贸区设立后的港区货物吞吐量进行合理预测,对港区未来发展方向、现有吞吐能力优化以及完善基础设施建设都具有重要的意义。本文首先介绍了自由贸易区和自由贸易港区的基本概念,分析了国内外自由贸易港区的发展现状。对东疆港区吞吐装卸及运输能力进行了分析,充分了解了目前东疆港区现状。随后搜集了大量相关资料,其中包括企业生产计划表及近十年的集装箱吞吐量,利用模拟植物生长法对未来5年的集装箱吞吐量进行了预测,再利用上海自由贸易港区集装箱吞吐量的变化来指导和计算天津在成立自由贸易区后东疆港区集装箱的吞吐量。接着,根据东疆港区每年集装箱吞吐量在全港集装箱吞吐量中所占比例,得出自贸区设立后东疆港区的吞吐量预测值。通过数据的对比和分析,可知东疆港区现有的吞吐能力不能很好的满足日益增长的集装箱吞吐量,需要在发展过程中不断完善和提高。最后,针对东疆港区的功能定位、基础设施建设、未来发展方向和可能出现的问题,以及吞吐量的不断提高为港区建设带来的机遇和挑战,提出了一些发展建议,例如增加公路延长线、拓建新型现代化泊位,采取甩挂运输运送集装箱等,并对进一步的研究进行了展望。
[Abstract]:In August 31, 2006, the State Council officially approved the establishment of Tianjin Dongjiang Bonded Port Area, promoting the development and opening of Tianjin Binhai New area. April 21, 2015 Tianjin FTA experimentation area was formally established, relying on the port of Tianjin, adjacent to the Binhai New Area, Tianjin free trade area as the core of one of the most important development of Dongjiang Free Trade Zone will be the priority among priorities of the future development of FTA strategy. Free trade port area is a special concept of port or port area. By utilizing the means of tariff reduction and free entry and entry of these preferential treatment, we can achieve the goal of driving the region and promoting the rapid development of the surrounding area. Free trade zones and free trade ports all enjoy preferential treatment such as exemption from customs duties and are not subject to the supervision of the customs of the sovereign state. A variety of preferential policies will increase the throughput of the free trade port, and the port transport pressure will increase accordingly. Selecting the right way and reasonably predicting the cargo throughput in the port area after the establishment of the free trade area is of great significance for the future development direction of the port area, the optimization of the existing throughput capacity and the improvement of infrastructure construction. This paper first introduces the basic concepts of free trade area and free trade port, and analyzes the development status of free trade port at home and abroad. The Dongjiang port throughput handling and transportation capacity are analyzed, and fully understand the current situation of Dongjiang port. Then we collect a lot of data, including production schedule and container throughput of nearly ten years, the container throughput in the next 5 years were predicted by using plant growth simulation method, the changes of the free trade port of Shanghai container throughput to guide and calculation of Tianjin in the establishment of free trade zone Dongjiang port container throughput. Then, according to the proportion of the annual container throughput of Dongjiang port in the population of container throughput, the establishment of a free trade zone after Dongjiang port throughput prediction. Through the comparison and analysis of data, the existing container throughput of Dongjiang port throughput capacity can not meet the growing needs, and continuously improve in the development process. Finally, according to the function, Dongjiang port infrastructure construction, the future development direction and possible problems, and constantly improve the throughput of the opportunities and challenges for the port construction, puts forward some development suggestions, such as increasing road extension, extension of the building of new berths, container transport to transport, and the a prospect of further research.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F552.7

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